China unexpectedly announced on Sunday, November 9, the suspension of its export ban to the United States of America on gallium, antimony, and germanium, three critical raw materials, in a new sign of de-escalation in trade tensions between the two countries.
Beijing holds an almost complete monopoly over critical metals used in modern manufacturing, from automobiles and electronics to advanced weaponry.
The regulation, which until now prevented the export of these rare metals, essential components primarily for semiconductors, is suspended “until November 27, 2026,” according to an announcement from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.
Beijing’s move comes as a result of negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
The ban had been imposed in December 2024 and concerned exports of “dual-use” materials, meaning substances that can be used for both civilian and military applications.
According to data, China produces approximately 94% of the world’s gallium supply and about 83% of germanium.
Alongside the suspension of the ban on these specific metals, China also eased strict controls on graphite exports to the U.S., which had been imposed as part of the dual-use export regime.
This decision is widely interpreted as a sign of efforts to restore trade flows and stabilize supply chains between the world’s two largest economies.
Although the move indicates de-escalation, strategic points of friction remain: China retains the ability to control critical materials, a form of “weapon” in the technological and geopolitical confrontation.
Consequences for the United States
Immediate relief for compound semiconductor sectors (GaN/GaAs RF for 5G/defense, optoelectronics, infrared optics with germanium).
The U.S. imports and depends heavily, with China holding about 99% of the primary low-purity gallium production and a leading position in germanium production.
For Europe
Immediate easing of supply risk and possible short-term price stabilization, especially for photoelectronics/spectroscopy (germanium) and RF–GaN/GaAs (gallium).
The E.U. is already in discussions with China for general export licenses to stabilize material flows.
The decision “buys time” in implementing the EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) but does not eliminate structural dependence: the goal remains diversification, recycling, and European processing and refining.
Previous restrictions had dramatically increased prices (e.g., +50–60% for germanium during 2024), so a relaxation in licensing could lead to a correction, although volatility will remain.
Even though China is “freezing” the pressure, the weaponization of raw materials continues, hence the ongoing onshoring/ally-shoring efforts (MSP, bilateral agreements, incentives).
What came before
On October 9, China announced it would restrict exports of any rare earth product containing ≥0.1% or manufactured with Chinese technology.
“They overreacted, because instead of keeping the negotiation bilateral, they made it global.
And that scared the whole world,” said Dennis Wilder, former senior U.S. official on China affairs.
Investor Alexander Campbell estimates that due to the real estate crisis, Chinese banks need annual borrowing of $1 trillion, supported by a trade surplus of the same size.
Therefore, he believes that the importance of exports and the threat of high tariffs are underestimated.
According to Campbell, Trump forced China to use the “rare earth card,” showing that it could also be applied to other issues.
The pressure exerted by China made the need for the U.S. to seek supply security elsewhere both urgent and clear.
Closing the rare earth vulnerability
In addition to his meeting with Xi in South Korea, Trump visited other Asian countries and signed agreements with Japan and Malaysia.
He also signed an agreement with Australia for access to rare earth reserves and infrastructure, while Brazilian company Aclara Resources Inc. announced the construction of a refinery in Louisiana, scheduled for completion in 2027.
Trump’s goal is for the United States to completely eliminate dependence on Chinese rare earths within 18 months.
These critical metals will determine future competition between a market economy under the United States and a non-market economy under China.
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