This is not the first time, and obviously it will not be the last, that senior European officials have warned of the horror scenario: a war breaking out between NATO and Russia.
References to a military conflict between the West and Russia are so frequent that it is now considered a given, and the only thing that seems to remain to be clarified is when it will happen. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius mentioned that the latest estimates suggest that we may have experienced the last summer of peace as Europeans. Russia responded that there is no Russian who supports a war scenario with NATO, although it notes that in case it is attacked, there will be a response.
But the warnings do not stop here nor are they limited to figures of speech. In Poland, they attribute an explosion on one of their railway lines to unprecedented sabotage in its modern history. In Britain, they say that NATO is already fighting Russia and that the conflict could escalate into a nuclear war, while reports suggest that the US, Russia, and China have now entered the trajectory of the 3rd nuclear age.
All indications suggest that a path has begun to form from which there seems to be no return.
Message from Berlin
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius left open the possibility of a war with Russia breaking out within the next few years. In an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Pistorius said that a war between NATO and Russia could occur.
"We always said that this could happen in 2029. However, now there are others who say it is possible as early as 2028, while some military historians even believe that we have lived through the last peaceful summer," stated Pistorius, who argues that the armed forces of NATO countries must be equipped even better for possible operations against Russia.
Europe also warns
Russia could test NATO "within the next two or four years," warns EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, suggesting that this could include an attack on one of the Baltic countries.
Speaking at the "Defending Baltics 2025: War Lessons from Ukraine" conference in Vilnius this morning, Kubilius said that the urgent need to define how to defend the Baltic region stems from "the public statements of our intelligence services, including those of Germany, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and from our region, which state that Putin may be ready to test Article Five within the next two or four years, before 2030."
"We can only assume that in such a case, the Baltic countries will be one of the preferred targets of the new Kremlin aggression. It will be an aggression against both NATO and the EU," said the European Commissioner.
The D-Day
Kubilius stressed that EU and NATO countries must learn lessons from Ukraine's struggle against Russia and accelerate their defense plans. "My main message today: let's ask the Ukrainians how to be ready for defense and how they can help us be ready," he said.
He expressed his disappointment that it took years for EU countries to understand "that we are not ready to detect Russian drones and destroy them with cost-effective means, despite the fact that all of us witnessed the massive use of drones on the Ukrainian front."
"We must remember that if D-Day comes and Putin decides to test Article Five somewhere in the Baltic region, we will face the aggression of a battle-tested Russian army, which is now much more powerful than it was in February 2022 and is capable of using millions of drones." "Are we really ready for such a D-Day, despite the fact that we do not have battle-tested armies in the Baltic countries?" Kubilius wondered.
Russia's answer
The statements of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius regarding the potential war between Russia and NATO show which side is truly the aggressor, emphasized Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.
"Now there is no doubt about who the aggressor is," noted the Russian official, while Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, argued that in Russia there are no supporters of a war with NATO. "You know that in Russia there are no supporters of any conflict with NATO, but we are forced to take measures to ensure our security and interests. This is linked to the need to react to a rhetoric that is military, and perhaps these statements better reflect the situation," Peskov underlined.
Kartapolov (Russia): If NATO attacks us, we will respond and win
The statements of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius about a potential war between Russia and NATO serve the Western states to justify their mistakes and problems, covering them with the "Russian threat," emphasized the head of the Defense Committee of the Russian Duma, Andrey Kartapolov.
Kartapolov stressed that Russia has no interest in a war with NATO and is unlikely to start one. However, if the Alliance attacks, Russia will respond. "They understand that they will lose this war," the MP stated, adding that the West is trying to justify its actions, explaining the waste of taxpayers' money with the "Russian threat."
Kolesnik (Russia): They want to spread panic
For his part, Andrey Kolesnik, also a member of the Duma Defense Committee, stated that Pistorius' latest statement on preparing for war with Russia could be the pretext for the seizure of frozen Russian assets from Western banks.
Kolesnik questioned the real threat of war, noting that this statement is simply part of an information campaign aimed at diverting attention from internal problems, including corruption scandals in Ukraine.
Furthermore, he mentioned that in Europe they will likely continue to cite new deadlines for a potential military conflict with Russia in order to cause public panic. This, according to Kolesnik, will help to continue the demagoguery and justification of the sanctions.
The three scenarios
Russian military analyst, Alexander Kots, argues that due to internal crises in Western European countries, such as migration, economic problems, and social issues, the West may start the conflict sooner than planned.
As he says, NATO's plans may include three possible scenarios to involve Russia in the war.
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Military intervention in Ukraine: NATO may introduce troops into Ukraine without Moscow's approval, regardless of whether Russia's special military operation continues or not. In this case, a bloody provocation may be caused, which will allow NATO to impose a no-fly zone and control critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants. Russia has already stated that any foreign troops in Ukraine will be considered legitimate targets.
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Provocation against Russia's "shadow fleet": If sanctions pressure increases, the West may try to blockade the Russian "shadow fleet" in the Baltic, which would lead to a direct risk of conflict with Russian warships.
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Blockade of Kaliningrad: NATO is reinforcing its military position in Eastern Europe, particularly in Lithuania, which is linked to the possible blockade of Kaliningrad. The strategically important Russian region may be blockaded, which will require the intervention of Russian forces. NATO commanders, including General Christopher Donahue, have stated that the alliance can quickly destroy Kaliningrad, which intensifies concerns about the impending conflict.
Kots stressed that any attempt by NATO to blockade Kaliningrad or restrict Russia's access to the Baltic Sea may be considered a casus belli. For example, in case of a blockade of the land corridor through Lithuania to the Kaliningrad region (Suwalki corridor), Russia could interpret it as a direct threat to its interests. It is important to note that this corridor passes between the Polish and Lithuanian armies, and if NATO strengthens its positions there, this could lead to conflict.
All these moves, such as the Baltops and Air Defender exercises, in which nuclear attack scenarios are examined, can be used for provocation. The military editor noted that any complete physical blockade of the land corridor, airspace, and sea can be considered a casus belli. This is even more true if European countries reinforce their intentions with aggressive military actions.
The truth from Britain
However, from Britain they point out that this war is already raging.
The former head of the Naval Staff of the Royal Navy, Lord Alan West, stated that NATO is already fighting Russia, and that the conflict in Ukraine could escalate into a nuclear war.
"Essentially, we are fighting Russia. It is amazing that we have found ourselves in this situation," underlined Lord Alan West, who expressed his concern that the conflict in Ukraine could escalate into a nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO.
Sabotage in Poland
At the same time, Poland speaks of sabotage regarding the explosion that occurred on its railway network, specifically on a line between Warsaw and Lublin, in the eastern part of the country.
"Unfortunately, there is no doubt that this is sabotage. Fortunately, there was no tragedy, but the issue remains very serious. The case is developing and under investigation, but unfortunately, there is no doubt that this is a deliberate action—an act of sabotage," claimed Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, with Polish media pointing out that this line is used for supplies to Ukraine.
In fact, the Polish Defense Minister, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, stated that the military will now inspect the security of the remaining 120-kilometer route leading to the border with Ukraine. Reports from the news agency RMF24 indicate that there was a second attack on a railway line within 24 hours, with analysts speaking of a potential provocation that could also be used as a pretext for the start of war.
This time, it is said that the current contact system in the area of the city of Puławy was destroyed. It has not been announced exactly how the incident happened or how long it will take to repair the damage. Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński spoke of unprecedented sabotage in the modern history of Poland.
Merz's warning: Deep rift with the US
For his part, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz highlights the challenges amidst the changing relationship with the US, China, and the new emerging global order.
Specifically, Merz warned of "a deep rift" in Europe's relations with the US, the growing threat from China, and the rapidly evolving systemic challenges to the global order, which require a united European response.
Merz delivered the opening speech at the economic summit organized by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung at the Adlon Hotel in Berlin. In an extensive speech at the Süddeutsche Zeitung Economic Summit, Merz stated that Germany faces "a deep rift in transatlantic relations that calls into question almost everything we considered right and necessary for decades."
He also referred to China, warning that the regime is becoming "externally more aggressive, internally more repressive." Merz also spoke about the need to abolish the "excessive" EU bureaucracy, which, he said, risks "jeopardizing the overall success" of the EU single market.
He pointed out that "a new fundamental global order" is just emerging, marking the end of the "reasonable certainty" that existed in recent decades. "We face international challenges to which we, as Europeans, must respond jointly, with the ability to defend ourselves," he said, adding that Europe faces "permanent" threats to its democracies and freedoms.
"We are entering the third nuclear age"
Meanwhile, according to the Wall Street Journal, a new nuclear arms race has begun between the US, Russia, and China.
The technological superiority of the US, which was the main element of its dominance in the field of nuclear weapons, is slowly disappearing, and the country now faces threats from both Russia and China. If in the past the US could negotiate with Moscow to reduce weapons, it will now have to face two nuclear adversaries, which significantly changes the balance of power in global security.
The peculiarity of the current situation, as experts note, is that China, which is not subject to any restrictions like the International Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, is rapidly developing its nuclear arsenal. According to estimates by American analysts, by 2030, China may reach approximately the level of the US in terms of the number of deployed nuclear warheads. At the same time, the strong relations between Russia and China have created an unprecedented level of strategic uncertainty for the US and its allies.
Matthew Kroenig, director of the Scowcroft Center and former Pentagon employee, stated that the world is entering the "third nuclear age," which will resemble the Cold War more than the calmer decades of the 1990s and 2000s. This means that the US is restarting the reinforcement of its nuclear arsenals instead of reducing them.
The US delay in the nuclear race
It is noteworthy that the US is now in third place in the nuclear race, behind not only Russia but also China. Expert Malek Dudakov stressed that both Russia and China have the capacity to create new nuclear warheads and carriers, while the US faces problems with technologies that have long been lost and is forced to carry out tests with old missile technologies, which is causing them concern.
Nuclear tests by the US
The situation escalated in late October, when President Donald Trump stated that he ordered the US Department of Defense to begin nuclear tests, as other countries, such as Russia and China, are already carrying out such programs. Trump stressed that the US must test its nuclear weapons on an equal footing with other countries. This decision is contrary to the previous position of the US, which had not conducted nuclear tests since 1992.
However, despite plans to conduct tests, Trump also stated that he would like to hold a meeting with the leaders of Russia and China to discuss nuclear disarmament. His desire to discuss nuclear disarmament amidst the announcement of the resumption of nuclear tests creates even greater uncertainty in relations between the three countries.
China's nuclear power
China officially does not disclose information about its nuclear stockpile, but it is known that the country is actively developing its nuclear arsenal. According to experts, in 2023, China had approximately 410 nuclear warheads, which is 60 more than in 2022. By 2025, according to analysts, China may have about 600 warheads.
The increase in China's nuclear stockpile is a consequence of the strengthening of US military power and the escalating geopolitical confrontation between China and Western countries on issues such as human rights and democratic values. This situation creates a complex strategic picture, in which the US, Russia, and China play central roles, with their nuclear arsenals and developments in nuclear technology being important factors in global politics.
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