(upd) The great bargaining of the war on the 28 terms of the peace plan of President of the United States Donald Trump began in Geneva, Switzerland, and it is widely expected to end in a fiasco, since the counterproposals the EU brings to the negotiating table tear up the American plan and cross the red line set by Russia.
In addition, the discussions are taking place at lower hierarchical levels, with the United States delegation negotiating with second tier EU officials and advisers of the Ukrainian side.
The alternative European plan overturns the Trump plan
“The Trump plan forces Ukraine to make concessions that for years were considered unacceptable for the country, such as transferring territory to Russia, significantly reducing the Ukrainian army, holding elections in 90 or at most 100 days, while excluding the presence of any NATO troops on Ukrainian soil.”
The European peace plan differs dramatically, overturning these points, as revealed by the American newspaper Washington Post WP and the Bloomberg agency.
The EU appears to follow a completely different strategy from Washington, demanding reinforcement of the Ukrainian army, recovery of vital energy and water sites and avoidance of immediate regulation of border issues, according to international agencies.
Specifically:
1) The United States must provide security guarantees equivalent to NATO Article 5, meaning mutual assistance in case of attack.
2) The EU rejects the limit of 600,000 troops in the Ukrainian army AFU, it wants at least 800,000. The American Trump plan set a maximum number of 600,000 troops in the AFU. The EU rejects the restriction.
3) Full recovery of control of critical infrastructure is required, Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant ZNPP, Kakhovskaya Hydroelectric Power Plant KGES.
4) Complete freedom of navigation on the Dnieper River is required.
5) Ukraine must regain control of the strategic Kinburn Spit zone. This area has been under Russian control since 2022.
6) All other territorial issues are postponed. The EU refers the discussion of final borders to after the ceasefire, not before, and exclusively along the current line of contact, according to Bloomberg.
7) Frozen Russian assets must be used for the reconstruction and compensation of Ukraine. At the same time,
a) the United States will receive compensation for the strict security guarantees they will provide,
b) Russian assets will remain frozen if Moscow does not agree to pay the damages to Ukraine.
8) Sanctions against Russia will be lifted gradually, provided Moscow complies with the terms of the agreement.
Who are the grey cardinals of the negotiations in place of the European leaders
In a shocking twist in the developments around the war in Ukraine, the European Union is sending to Geneva not its official leadership but the so called grey cardinals, the backstage second tier officials who, however, are the true architects of decisions in Brussels and shape European policy.
They are:
1) Olof Skago, Deputy Secretary General for Political Affairs of the EU external action service
2) Björn Seibert, head of the office of the President of the European Commission
3) Pedro Lourti, assistant to the head of the European Council
The Trump team is already in Switzerland together with the Ukrainian delegation, namely:
1) United States Secretary of State Marko Rubio
2) Special Envoy of the American President Steven Whitkoff
3) Secretary of the Ukrainian NSDC Rustem Umerov, together with the full Ukrainian delegation
Where is the European leadership
While in Geneva, on Sunday 23 November, the future shape of Ukraine, the ceasefire line, the structure of the country’s armed forces and the terms of any future peace agreement are being decided, during the most critical talks of the war, the official European leadership is outside Europe.
The EU leadership is in South Africa while Europe decides on war and peace.
The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Council António Costa and the High Representative for EU Foreign and Security Policy Kaja Kallas are in South Africa, at the G20 summit, and will travel immediately afterward to the EU–African Union summit.
Andriy Yermak opens the game, our work has begun, the atmosphere is constructive
The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine OP, Andriy Yermak, announced that the Ukrainian delegation has officially begun its work in Geneva.
In the first phase, he met with:
1) the national security adviser of the United Kingdom Jonathan Powell
2) the national security adviser of France Emmanuel Bonne
3) the national security adviser of Germany Günther Sauthoff
Yermak described the atmosphere as very constructive and stated that many more meetings will take place at different levels.
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