The peace memorandum is a "ploy," chance of failure at 70% – Deal with the West only when the Russian flag is raised in Odesa

US President Trump is indeed trying to achieve a result in the Ukrainian crisis—this should not be underestimated. However, the rest of the miserable and warmongering West continues to want to inflict defeat on Russia and is sabotaging the American President's plans.

The peace plan is now a ploy to halt the unprecedented Russian advance on the Eastern Ukrainian Front. The original 28-point peace plan that the Russians liked was reduced to 22 or 19 points, removing all the core elements the Russians required. The 19-point plan is fully rejected by Russia.

With the new machinations of Ukraine's Western protectors, the probability of the peace plan's failure has increased to 70%, and the chance of peace has decreased to 30%.

However, the Americans have now understood: Ukraine lost the war, it was defeated, and they have formally recognized this. But let's not be fooled: NATO is not a defensive alliance; it is an offensive military alliance, and it has one enemy: Russia.

When the US demands that spending on weapons be increased to 5% of GDP, it is because the Western powers are clearly preparing, having set their sights on Russia and China, whom they consider multifaceted adversaries.

Russia today has the complete military initiative. Donbass is collapsing, and the current American peace plan simply aims to prevent Ukraine's total collapse. Russia is advancing aggressively and victoriously. Russia should only sign a Peace Memorandum when it has captured all of Donbass, all of Zaporizhzhia, all of Kherson, and has advanced toward Mykolaiv and Odesa, and raises the Russian flag in Odesa.

How much time will be needed?

About 1.5 more years of war. Russia must not be lured into opportunistic peace agreements. Russia will only be safe when Ukraine surrenders and NATO withdraws from Europe's eastern borders.

What are the facts?

Negotiations for Ukraine are gaining momentum, but the questions are many. Following a meeting between the American and Ukrainian delegations in Geneva, Switzerland, media reported on new talks, including a meeting in the United Arab Emirates and direct contacts between Russia and Ukraine. In this context, the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom are trying to intervene in the process and push for changes in those aspects of the Trump plan that they believe benefit Russia. Meanwhile, Trump announced his intention to meet with Putin and Zelensky, but only after the parameters of the agreement are finalized.

How are the negotiations proceeding?

The US peace plan, as of Wednesday, November 26, 2025, had significantly changed from its original version. This happened after talks between the American and Ukrainian delegations in Geneva. According to US President Trump, "tremendous progress" has been made in agreeing on the most problematic points.

However, none of the versions of the document leaked online before or after the meeting in Switzerland are definitive. US President Trump insists that the US will present the final version of the agreement only after separate discussions with Russia. For this reason, President Trump claims, his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will travel to Moscow next week for talks with Russian President Putin. Meanwhile, US Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll will visit Kyiv again to finalize the document. The parties are discussing a mutual transfer of land and an effort to clear the borders of troops.

"You can't draw borders through the middle of a house, you can't draw them through the middle of a highway. It's a complex process," Trump emphatically stressed.

Are there contacts between Russia and Ukraine?

According to Axios, on November 25, Russian and Ukrainian delegations held secret talks in Abu Dhabi. According to the report, the talks were attended by Kirill Budanov, head of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR), and Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).

When asked to comment on the report, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov neither confirmed nor denied the information: "We want to act as is customary for foreign policy service employees: to negotiate confidentially before announcing what we have agreed upon."

What has changed in the Peace Memorandum?

According to Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Kislitsa, after the Geneva meeting, the new American peace plan "bears little resemblance to the previous one." He said that the number of points was reduced from 28 to 19, and the most sensitive issues were left "to the discretion of the presidents of both countries."

The 19-point plan is rejected by Russia

Some officials in the Trump administration believe that the changes to the peace agreement achieved after meetings between American and Ukrainian negotiators in Geneva could lead to the complete rejection of the American Peace Plan by the Russians. Trump partially confirmed Sergey Kislitsa's words. He claims that there are now 22 points and the final version must be agreed upon with Russia.

"These Russians are already making concessions. Their biggest concession is to stop fighting and not take more land," the president stated. "Ukraine is much smaller and weaker than Russia."

"Do you want to fight more and lose another 50-60,000 people or do you want to do something now?" was Trump's message to the Ukrainians.

What are Ukraine and the European leaders trying to achieve?

According to CNN, Ukraine is ready to agree on most points except for three:

1. Restrictions on the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)

2. NATO membership

3. Territorial concessions.

But these exact points are crucial for the Russian side. With the term "readiness to support the plan," Ukraine means the 19-point version. Zelensky declared his intention to meet with Trump as soon as possible to sign the Geneva Agreement. He also insists on the presence of European leaders. But the US rejected the idea: a meeting would only be possible after a final agreement on terms with Russia.

"I look forward to meeting with President Zelensky and President Putin soon, but only when an agreement to end this war is final or in its final stages," Trump emphasized.

How does the US react to the negotiations? - There are two camps

According to NBC News, the debate regarding the formulation of the peace plan continues not only between the European Union, Great Britain, Ukraine, and the United States, but also within Trump's team. There are two camps in the president's inner circle that adopt fundamentally different positions on resolving the conflict.

First camp

The first group includes Steve Witkoff, Vice President J.D. Vance, and their supporters, including US Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll. They are considered the drafters of the original 28-point plan, which required compliance with most of Russia's demands.

Second camp

The second camp is Secretary of State Rubio and his team, who are much more critical of Russia. Bloomberg published a transcript of Steve Witkoff's conversations with Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, as well as the latter's conversation with the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Kirill Dmitriev. Bloomberg claims that the 28-point plan "was actually drafted in Moscow, Russia."

Is there a chance for peace? Only a 30% chance and 70% that it will fail

Achieving peace in Ukraine is now absolutely feasible, noted Minchenko, president of the communications company Minchenko Consulting. According to him, the chance of compromise this time is significantly higher than in previous attempts. However, the opponents of the Trump peace plan remain strong. According to the expert, these include Zelensky, representatives of the United Kingdom and the European Union, as well as parts of the American establishment. All of them are trying to derail the settlement process. As a result, he stressed, the probability of the negotiations collapsing is still higher at 70% than the chance of peace at 30%.

Svetlana Zourova (Russia): NATO will never reconcile with Russia

Svetlana Zourova, deputy chairwoman of the State Duma Committee on International Relations, is convinced that NATO's financial situation will prevent the alliance from becoming friendly towards Russia.

"NATO was essentially created as an alliance opposed to Russia. How can we be friends here if America adopted a budget against us as a strategic enemy and the alliance increased European countries' contributions to 5% from 2.5% of GDP? So they would have to cut everything. And that is money, so who will pay for it?" Svetlana Zourova noted.

The deputy reminded that NATO is motivated by the fact that Russia is the aggressor country. This is precisely the reason for the increase in defense spending.

There is an economic basis here that simply will not allow NATO to become our friend. Maintaining parity, yes, but becoming friends is unlikely. Until this increase in defense spending stops.

It should be noted that Ukraine declares it has no intention of abandoning its NATO membership.

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