Humiliation: Lithuania trembles, balloons filled with cigarettes, claims they are destroying NATO defense

Europeans are watching in astonishment the new ploy by Russia that exposes the "Iron" NATO. Indeed, they are constantly talking about balloons that constitute "hybrid warfare" for them.

According to The Telegraph, more than 20 balloons used to smuggle cigarettes illegally from Belarus to Lithuania have disrupted operations at Vilnius Airport and affected approximately 30 flights. Vilnius Airport was forced to close nine times due to these balloons.

The new phase of Russia's hybrid war

This scene could seem ordinary in a Blyton novel. Overnight, smugglers gather on a remote rural road and attach boxes of illegal cigarettes to giant balloons. The balloons, which carry GPS and cigarettes worth about £3,000 each, are launched high into the sky in Belarus and then transported to Lithuania.

But, unlike the villains of Blyton's novels, these smugglers have a darker goal than profit: creating chaos in air traffic on NATO's eastern flank, in what Lithuania characterizes as a new phase of Moscow's hybrid war against the West.

Since October, the second-largest airport in the Baltic, in Vilnius, has been forced to close nine times due to these swarms of balloons, which first reached neighboring Latvia this week. There are also reports of balloon launches from Kaliningrad, the Russian isolated region located between Lithuania, Poland, and the key Russian ally, Belarus.

The threat of hybrid war

Lithuanian officials told The Telegraph that the balloon swarms constitute a "hybrid attack" on the West, carried out with the approval of Alexander Lukashenko. They warned that the balloon launches pose a "serious" threat to NATO's security on the eastern flank and that they are being carried out within the broader context of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine.

Although the balloons generally carry contraband, Lithuanian experts stress that they could eventually be equipped with spy cameras, incendiary devices, or explosives, as tensions with Russia continue to escalate.

Most worryingly, they emphasize, is that the balloons are helping Russia create maps of the weak spots on NATO's eastern flank every time they manage to cross the border.

Since last year, at least 550 balloons have been intercepted by Lithuanian authorities, although the actual number of launches is likely much higher, as only 28% of the balloons are shot down, according to data from the Baltic news organization Belsat. The balloon swarms have intensified since early October, with the largest launch taking place last weekend.

As the balloons can reach heights of 26,000 feet, they are often too high to be hit by drones or firearms. Even if this were not the case, there is the risk that the balloon's cargo, which can weigh up to 50 kilograms, could kill or injure people when it falls back to earth.

How the balloons are used for smuggling

Smugglers locate the balloons via GPS and collect them as they float toward the ground. Unlike Russia's drone fleets, which have terrorized Ukraine's cities and were even sent to Poland in September, the balloon war may seem like a minor threat, perhaps even a bit funny.

However, Lithuanian officials stress that this is precisely what makes the tactic so effective: it is a form of hybrid warfare that Belarus and Russia can deny, claiming it is merely the work of small-time criminals. It is also part of a broader Russian hybrid warfare campaign, which includes drone attacks, arson attacks on European airports, as well as a series of sabotage acts on factories and railway lines providing aid to Ukraine.

Belarus's involvement

"The Belarusian regime is responsible for what we assess as a hybrid attack aimed at disrupting the activities of our government and society," an official told The Telegraph, citing recent speeches by Alexander Lukashenko which indicate he is fully aware of the smugglers' actions and has little desire to stop them.

"The current activities are committed within the broader context of Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine and, represent a serious threat to global peace and security," the official added.

This is not the first incident in which Lukashenko is accused of implementing hybrid warfare tactics on Russia's behalf. In 2021, the Belarusian government sent tens of thousands of migrants, mainly from North Africa and the Middle East, to its borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, attempting to overwhelm the EU's border guards.

Strategic message via the balloons

The broader strategic message the balloons are sending to the West is this: "The message they are sending is, 'you are not safe anymore, and don't think the war is only in Ukraine – it's already here, but in a different form than Russian tanks crossing the border'," he said.

In fact, the situation could become even worse if there is a bad peace deal for Ukraine. Estonia, another Baltic country sharing a border with Russia, is increasingly worried that it will be targeted by Russia once the war in Ukraine ends, to test if NATO allies are truly willing to offer assistance.

Lithuania strikes back with strategy and increased security measures

The Lithuanian government is taking action against the smugglers: it has authorized border guards to shoot down the balloons when it is safe to do so. Previously, it had reacted by closing its borders with Belarus, a move it may repeat in response to the latest influx of balloons.

Vilnius has also requested NATO to deploy one of its Hybrid Threat Support Teams, which offer security advice, to the Lithuanian border and plans to increase sanctions against Minsk.

"Nuclear blackmail, the use of irregular migration and unmanned flying objects, including smugglers' balloons, will not succeed," a Lithuanian official stated.

www.bankingnews.gr