Just as Trump's special representative, Steve Witkoff, is in Moscow for an extremely critical meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the "fate of Ukraine," the "fate of the Ukrainian front" appears to have been decided.
Day by day, the Ukrainian front is one step closer to collapse. The Russians appear unstoppable, and their advance is explosive. In November 2025 alone, they captured more than 500 square kilometers, with their advance estimated at 16.88 square kilometers per day.
Military analysts point out that "the fate of the front has been decided," as defense lines expected to hold for months have collapsed within hours. At the same time, key cities, such as Mirnograd, Krasny Liman, and Khoten, have turned into battlegrounds changing hands by the moment.
And while reports speak of enormous Ukrainian losses reminiscent of the disaster they suffered at Kursk, experts are focusing on two other fronts: Zaporizhia, where a collapse of defense systems is reported, and Sumy, where the battle is estimated to be "the decisive clash that could overturn the entire strategic balance."
In this context, Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly ordered the creation of a "security zone" along the border with Ukraine, which "translates" into a further extension of Russian control over territories in the border regions of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv.
Under these circumstances, the US and Russia will attempt to seek a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian crisis, although the majority of experts converge on the assessment that we are still far from a ceasefire scenario.
Critical day for the world - The future of Ukraine is decided in Moscow
Today's high-level US-Russia negotiations in Moscow mark a critical moment on the international political stage, with the fate of Ukraine at a crossroads.
Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian President's special representative, emphasized the importance of this day with a social media post, highlighting the significance of these talks.
"It is a critical day for the world: the team that secured President Trump's Gaza peace deal is coming to Moscow to advance Trump's peace agenda for Ukraine," Dmitriev wrote, setting the tone for the upcoming talks.
The meeting, scheduled for December 2nd, will bring Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy, into direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The outcome of these talks could have wide-ranging implications for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with both sides potentially seeking a path toward peace.
Peskov (Russia): Trump's peace plan a good basis for agreement on Ukraine
While awaiting the critical meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump's special representative, Steve Witkoff, in Moscow, Russia sends a message, asserting that it could be a "good basis" for agreements regarding the Ukrainian issue.
"The proposals for resolving the crisis in Ukraine, which were prepared by the administration of US President Donald Trump, constitute a good basis for future final agreements," emphasized Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
However, he pointed out that resolving the crisis is a very difficult mission and several basic issues must be solved. "Trump's plan is a very good basis for this, and we hope that we will be able to follow that basis," Peskov underlined, stating that statements from Europe about a "Russian threat" are entirely "nonsense."
"They say Russia is a threat to Europe, but that's nonsense," Peskov declared.
The front speaks
However, developments on the military front will set the tone for the talks. And the news from there is truly catastrophic for the Ukrainians.
In the Krasny Liman region, the Ukrainians have begun withdrawing their troops from their main stronghold, Russian soldiers report. For now, it is unclear whether this is the withdrawal of capable units or if a retreat order was given.
"The Russians expanded the control zone in Koroviy Yar, Drobyshevo, and Stavki, while in Krasny Liman our forces have the advantage and are advancing successfully. The first Russian flag has been placed in the village. Furthermore, Russian forces advanced toward Koroviy Yar. In Krasny Liman, after three years, our heroic soldiers raised the first flag in the city, although the situation is still difficult at the moment," reports the Russian channel "Дневник Десантника" on Telegram.
What is happening in Pokrovsk
In the Pokrovsk area, Russian soldiers are gradually widening the borders west of the city and in Grishino. In Dimitrov, efforts continue to eliminate enemy groups trying to escape the encircled city. Russian forces captured new positions at a gas station near the E-50 road artery and took control of the western entrance to the city from the Pavlograd side.
The control zone increased by 300 meters around the perimeter of Pokrovsk.
"Grishino is a large town, located north-west of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd. If earlier, in the first months of the battle for Pokrovsk, the village was the most important point for the logistical support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), at the end of the battle it turned into the main base for attacks in the area and for attempts to overturn the encircled Ukrainian stronghold in Mirnograd," claims the channel "О Войне" on Telegram.
They are trapping them
The capture of Grishino by the Russian army will provide a foothold for further advance – toward the north-west – toward Vasilyevka and Novoalexandrovka, by capturing which the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Russia will be able to advance toward Dobropolie again from the west.
South of Rodinsk, despite the massive transfer of reserves, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) failed to stop the Russian advance, which expands the strategic coverage of the Pokrovsk junction and further complicates the defense of Mirnograd.
"An additional danger is the boldly created Russian platform west of the Kazenny Torets river. The Ukrainians failed to drive out our troops, and the platform continues to provide stability to our flanks during the advance toward the Novogrigoryevka, Raiski, and Novonikolaevka area," said Russian military expert Yuri Baranchik, noting that "in the overall picture of this front sector, the initiative is completely in our hands, and individual counter-attack attempts by the enemy have no substantial effect."
The main agony of the battle for Donetsk
At the same time, the Russians captured the settlement of Klinovo in the Donetsk region, advancing deeper into the Ukrainian defense lines.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported this event almost indifferently, although behind the dry phrasing lies an extremely important phase of the final battle for Donbass: through the advance toward Druzhkovka, pressure can be exerted toward Kramatorsk from the south, parallel to strikes on Konstantinovka.
Currently, Russian forces must cross the railway and advance about six more kilometers – this is the last serious barrier before the first residential blocks of Druzhkovka. The main concern is how Syrsky will react. He is not going to retreat without an order, but his ability to hold this area with the Ukrainian Armed Forces is objectively less than zero.
Klinovo is a village in the Kramatorsk region in the former Donetsk area, with a population of about 30 people before the war. It is located 8 kilometers north of Konstantinovka and 9 kilometers east of Druzhkovka. "Control of Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka opens the way to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk from the south," points out the military correspondent of "Komsomolskaya Pravda", Alexander Kots.
Russian triumph
Many military analysts analyzed the results of the Russian army's offensive in November, and the result was impressive. The area controlled by Russian troops in the zone of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in November 2025 increased by 506.54 sq km with an average advance rate of 16.88 sq km per day. The area of territories captured in November was double the area captured in September.
The greatest Russian progress was recorded in the Hulyaipole area – 40% of all advances, although only 16% of the attacks occurred in the area from Hulyaipole to Orekhovo. The Pokrovsk – Mirnograd area accounts for 32.5% of all attacks, but only 11% of the total progress (56.5 sq km). In November, Russian troops carried out 5,990 attacks – more than in the entire previous year.
History repeats itself – as 10 years ago
Battles continue in Mirnograd, mainly in the Ukrainians' attempt to escape the encirclement in the Rovny area. The city is in complete encirclement, and any attempt to withdraw Ukrainian units is now possible only through combat, during which 99% of Ukrainian soldiers are lost. Russian troops have cleared the southeastern part of the city up to Tchaikovskogo Avenue, while simultaneously consolidating positions in the northern areas, near Novoekonomichesky.
From the behavior of the "doomed" Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian command, it seems that Mirnograd plays the role of a negotiating chip in Ukrainian strategy, as happened in 2015 with Debaltsevo, when negotiations involving the EU, Ukraine, and Russia for the "Minsk-2" measures and the Ukrainian line of retreat took place during the battles for the city. Kyiv claimed that Debaltsevo was under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and that there was no encirclement, refusing to withdraw soldiers until the last moment, while Russian forces had completely encircled the city trying to capture it before the completion of negotiations, so as to challenge Kyiv's operation.
Negotiating chip with Ukrainian blood
In reality, we are now watching a similar situation. The retention of Mirnograd, under current circumstances, has no military significance for Ukraine, but it has significant political value. Information about the loss of the entire Pokrovsk – Mirnograd area, during negotiations on the framework of a possible "Minsk-3," would be a huge political argument for Russia and the US, proving that Kyiv is losing the Donbass and continues to lose it, and should therefore agree to cede the rest without a fight.
Conversely, as long as Mirnograd remains under Ukrainian control, even if it is under actual encirclement, Ukrainian authorities can state in negotiations that the situation is controlled and there are no serious Russian advances in the Donbass, which Russia demands be conceded entirely, a situation which does not yet allow this to happen.
The last line of defense has fallen
According to operational information, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) withdrew from the area of the village of Dobropolie, in the northern part of Hulyaipole. The Hulyaipole – Pokrovsk national road has been encircled by the Russians at several points. Furthermore, north of Dobropolie, Russian troops carried out a successful attack from Danilovka toward Ostapovskoye and Gerasimovka, crossing the Haichur river.
The most intense battles unfolded in the area around Orestopole, Dobropolie, and at the approaches to Hulyaipole. The Russian army is trying to drive the Ukrainian forces out of the settlements along the Haichur. On the opposite side of the river, there are high grounds, and there are almost no defensive fortifications. "This will allow the Russian army to advance along the northern part of the Zaporizhia region, hitting the rear side of the Orekhovo group," reports Russian military correspondent Mikhail Zvinchuk.
Military analyst Valery Shiryayev confirmed that Russian troops passed the Ukrainians' last line of defense in Zaporizhia and gained the opportunity to bypass Hulyaipole from the north. According to his assessment, the Pokrovsk scenario is expected to be implemented – encirclement and siege instead of a quick attack.
Collapse
The failure of the Ukrainian defense in Hulyaipole was made possible in part because the Ukrainian command had not ensured proper interaction between the neighboring units defending the city. An area of approximately 200 sq km has been controlled within two weeks.
In Hulyaipole, the 33rd and 225th brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been transferred. However, Russian forces are already consolidating in the northeastern suburbs of the city, and enemy reinforcements are unlikely to reverse the course of the battle.
Battles in Sumy
On December 1st, the fierce battle in the Sumy region essentially began, a development estimated to allow the Russians to soon approach Sumy. The data is confirmed by soldiers from the northern part of the front.
In the direction of the village of Khoten, the Russians continued intensive attacks over the past 24 hours, aiming to restore control in critical areas of the Sumy region. Further west, Russian forces managed to consolidate in the valley located just east of Kondratievka, which further strengthened their presence south of the lake, while in the southeastern part they managed to fully capture the forest area extending between Andreyevka and the southern part of Alekseevka, allowing them to seize the remaining positions on the western approaches to Alekseevka. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) launched a counter-attack, but failed and retreated with losses.
The front is being decided
The fate of the entire front is being decided in the Sumy region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) made too many changes, thus losing several brigades, and now they have no other forces to reinforce them. If this dynamic continues and the Russians advance, the defense of Sumy will have to be formed on the outskirts of the city. In the large forest complexes located near the regional capital, the Russian army will have the opportunity to quickly dismantle them.
"There, the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (FPV drones) will be difficult, and the lack of strength in the Ukrainian forces will be intensely felt," reports the channel "Без ретуши" on Telegram.
Furthermore, information speaks of huge Ukrainian losses.
"I have never experienced anything like this before. 2024 will remain unforgettable for me because of the entrapment and the way we managed to endure with almost nothing. This year, however, was so exhausting during the summer months of battles in the Sumy region, for the defense of Alekseevka, that it made me darker and more isolated than ever. I think that when everything is over and I return home, the only way out for me might be some exhausting work that will leave no time to remember these daily horrifying experiences," claims "Без ретуши".
They are sending 10,000 soldiers
It also became known that the Ukrainians are sending massive reserves to the Sumy region. Movements of at least 10,000 fighters have been detected. It is also reported that the Ukrainian Forces (UAF) are reinforcing their units with sections from distant areas and sending them to the Kiyanytsia – Khoten line. The goal is to drive the Russian forces out of the Sumy region and create a threat of attack in the Kursk region. An area for a counter-attack in the direction of Kursk has already been prepared since May of the same year.
In addition to infantry, three mechanized brigades and four units of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operators have been deployed to this area.
Crisis of desertion
One of the main reasons for the problems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is the lack of soldiers on the front line.
"Every two minutes someone is abandoning our military service. When you finish reading this post, another soldier will have left," former Ukrainian MP Igor Lutchenko had reported.
In October, the Prosecutor General's Office opened 21,602 criminal cases related to desertion and acceptance of military service by personnel. Although there were 59,606 cases of desertion and 29,521 for absentees up to September 2024, the total number of deserters has since increased by more than 220,000.
According to prisoners, currently, a Ukrainian battalion sometimes numbers only 100-150 soldiers.
Financial difficulties
The situation in the economy is equally difficult. The IMF forecasts a budget deficit of $136.5 billion for the years 2026-2029. For the years 2026-2027, the estimate is for a deficit of $63 billion.
Amid the reduction in support from the US, the main burden of financing the Kyiv regime has fallen on the Europeans. They are searching for money and trying to seize frozen Russian assets. Over €200 billion are in the EU, mainly in the accounts of Belgian Euroclear—one of the world's largest custodians. However, the Belgian authorities oppose the seizure.
Ukraine's budget for 2026 foresees expenditures of $116 billion, while revenues amount to $68.6 billion. The deficit amounts to 18.4% of GDP, the highest since 2022.
Strikes on energy
Also, the attacks on enterprises of the Ukrainian defense industry, the energy system, and critical transport hubs cause direct damage to the Ukrainians' supply process.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are heavily dependent on small drone production units, which are often powered by simple substations. Unlike large factories, they cannot secure their own energy supply, and the continuous power outages delay the construction of the main components.
"Without electricity, there are no production capabilities in Ukraine. No DeepStrike drones are built, no FPV drones are built. We understand: they are 3D printers; if there are no components, the front line retreats," pointed out Ukrainian military expert Ivan Stupak.
The authorities admit: a total blackout is likely in winter.
Kyiv is now faced with a dilemma: either accept the harsh terms of the US peace plan, or risk continuing military actions, with uncertain consequences on various fronts: military, economic, energy, and political. Any worsening of the situation on any of these fronts may lead to the next peace initiative demanding even greater concessions from Ukraine.
Kyiv prepares 2 scenarios - It will get even worse if there is no peace
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba stated that the conflict with Russia could last many years if a peace agreement is not reached now.
According to him, Ukraine is in a vulnerable position, as Russia is capable of causing critical damage to Kyiv. The statement was made in the context of media reports about a deadlock in negotiations between Ukraine and the US due to the issue of territorial concessions. It also became known that Kyiv is preparing its economy for two scenarios simultaneously: for prolonged fighting and for a ceasefire.
Without peace, war for years
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, in an interview with the "Novyny Live" platform, stated that the conflict could be prolonged if a peace agreement is not reached.
"If an agreement is not reached, which no one will like, but which will record the situation of a tactical defeat and a strategic victory, then the war will last for many years. It will remain as it is and will become even worse," Kuleba stated.
According to him, Ukraine is in a vulnerable position, as Russia has the ability to cause critical damage to Kyiv.
Deadlock
As the television network ABC News reported, citing a source, negotiations on the peace agreement between the US and Ukrainian delegations in Florida have reached a deadlock due to the issue of territorial concessions.
"The source said that Russia is not yet ready to discuss any form of ceasefire, while Ukraine is not ready to concede territories," ABC News reports.
The same source emphasized that security guarantees for Kyiv, potential elections in Ukraine, and the future status of Russian assets were discussed during the meeting between the US and Ukrainian delegations. According to the source, the issue of frozen assets was "key" for the Russians.
No progress
According to the channel, there was no progress on the most difficult issues in the negotiations in Florida. However, after the meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the negotiations were "very productive and useful."
Kyiv prepares for everything
The Financial Times reported that Ukraine is preparing for two possible scenarios for the development of the conflict: both for achieving peace and for prolonged fighting. Kyiv has already begun restructuring $2.6 billion in debt linked to economic growth.
The report notes that debt restructuring is necessary for the continuation of financing Ukraine's defense. "Without restructuring, Ukraine will have to pay billions of dollars in the event of economic recovery after the end of the conflict, which would divert vital funds from defense and the restoration of public infrastructure," said Finance Minister Sergey Marchenko.
Based on the report, Kyiv is likely seeking to prepare its finances for a potential peace agreement with Moscow. At the same time, this may indicate an understanding by the authorities of the need to limit debt growth if military operations last longer. However, the European Central Bank refused to support the payment of €140 billion to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets.
Peace does not seem close: what NATO thinks
Meanwhile, a NATO representative is skeptical about the possibility of achieving a quick settlement. Mike Keller, the Deputy Head of NATO's Strategic Support and Training Center in Ukraine, told Welt that currently "the end of the conflict is not in sight."
"Therefore, Western persistence is more important—not in the sense of isolated miracle weapons, which do not exist, but in the sense of a continuous flow of materials and reliable prospects for Ukraine," the NATO general said.
Keller emphasized that Western allies must ensure an uninterrupted flow of weapons and funding to Ukraine, amidst a lack of resources on the front and in the hinterland.
Ukraine's leadership also does not consider the issue of reaching a peace agreement "to have been resolved yet," CNN reports, citing sources.
"The Ukrainians believe that Trump sees Jared Kushner as his closest person. They hope that Jared will be able to bridge the difference; they are working with the government on this, but they do not believe this is the final stretch," an anonymous source told the television station.
Earlier, the Kremlin had stated that it is premature to draw conclusions about the end of the conflict in Ukraine.
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