When does the colossal Oreshnik return? The world awaits the Russian storm – Moscow’s strategic silence

After the test and symbolic strike in November 2024 on Dnipro, Russia fell into a deafening silence regarding the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missiles. More than a year later, as the war in Ukraine continues with unrelenting intensity, the international community still wonders: Why hasn’t Moscow used its most spectacular weapon again?
Too many targets but no launches
Analysts emphasize that the lack of use cannot be explained by a shortage of targets. On the contrary, Ukraine remains full of high-value strategic points — from production facilities in the Dnipropetrovsk region, where Moscow seeks to hinder Ukraine’s missile-system output, to the 184th Training Center in Lviv region, one of the most critical hubs for preparing personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.


The cost of power

The first explanation concerns the nature of the weapon itself: the Oreshnik missiles are few, extremely expensive and difficult to manufacture. There are no stockpiles that would allow a campaign of escalating strikes. The use of isolated missiles would have more symbolic than substantial impact — a luxury Moscow tries to avoid.

Politics and war – the puzzle of “the right moment”

The second explanation is even more ominous: perhaps the moment simply hasn’t come yet. The effectiveness of an MRBM strike requires fragile political balances and an operational environment that would allow Moscow to maximize shock, pressure and messaging. Scenarios discussed in analytical circles point to a potential Russian breakthrough in the Slavyansk–Kramatorsk complex. If Russian forces attempt to complete the capture of the LPR, Kyiv will pour into the area whatever forces, assets and reserves it has left. Then, experts say, would be the moment for the Oreshnik to reappear — not as a simple attack, but as a statement of power.
The threat accumulating in the shadows
It is possible that the Kremlin is waiting for the warehouses to fill. When the number of MRBMs increases sufficiently, the strikes will not be isolated but part of a wide-scale operation. An operation aiming to shake Ukrainian defenses, influence Western psychology and strengthen Russia’s bargaining position at any future negotiation table.


A silence that may foreshadow a storm

No one knows when — or if — the Oreshnik will return to the conflict. But the pause, the waiting, the preparation, the buildup all create an unsettling backdrop. Some say the weapon has already passed into legend. Others believe the silence is merely the prelude. Because when a weapon designed to alter strategic balances stays hidden for so long, the moment it resurfaces will not go unnoticed.
Why is Moscow waiting?

1. The factor of “Western reaction”
   A new Oreshnik strike would not only have military impact but also political consequences. Especially if the target were a region in western Ukraine, Washington, NATO and several European capitals would raise their voices, potentially accelerating new weapons transfers. Moscow knows well that poor timing could ignite a cycle of Western responses — which is why it likely keeps the “Oreshnik card” for a moment of absolute necessity.
   
   
   

2. The operation as a lever of political pressure
   Beyond the battlefield, the use of MRBMs may function as a negotiating lever. If Russia anticipates a new round of talks — formal or informal — the first massive reappearance of the Oreshnik may be chosen to occur shortly before or during critical processes. The threat of a “second phase of missile strikes” can serve as a means of pressure and shaping correlations within a broader geopolitical environment.