Following the order for a naval blockade given by US President Donald Trump against sanctioned oil tankers entering or exiting Venezuela, the scenario of a direct military conflict between the two states is not far from reality. In fact, the world-renowned American journalist Tucker Carlson had estimated that it was very likely, earlier today, December 18, in the early hours, for Trump to declare war on Venezuela, something which, however, did not happen. Although the drums of war have not yet sounded, analysts do not rule out this possibility depending on how the two sides decide to move in the coming period.
The first spark
For example, the US has not yet clarified how Trump will enforce the naval blockade on Venezuela, whether, for example, he will turn to Coast Guard forces to intercept ships entering or leaving Venezuela, as he did last week with the tanker Skipper which was carrying oil from Venezuela and Iran. The American government has moved thousands of soldiers and nearly 12 warships, including an aircraft carrier, to the wider region. Furthermore, the statements made by Trump, who claimed that Venezuela is surrounded, are characteristic. "Venezuela is fully surrounded by the largest fleet assembled in the history of South America. The fleet will continue to grow, and the blow they will receive will be such as they have never seen before, until all the oil, lands, and other assets they stole from us are returned to the USA," Trump stated in a post on Truth Social.
Escort by warships
At the same time, Venezuela decided to have warships escort tankers carrying oil by-products from its ports, a fact that could be what leads directly to an engagement and potential military conflict between the naval forces of Venezuela and the USA. Indeed, as reported by the New York Times, the first tankers with urea and kerosene cargo that departed from the port of Puerto Jose, in northeastern Venezuela, left under the escort of naval vessels. A US official confirmed that Washington is aware of the escorts and various actions are being considered in response, while mentioning that it is not yet clear if these specific ships are subject to US sanctions and are included in the list of vessels threatened with blockade.
In complete safety
However, Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA, stated that its ships continue to travel with full safety, technical support, and operational guarantees, in their legal right to free navigation. At the same time, Venezuela condemned Trump's decision, speaking of a violation of international law, with President Maduro warning of the risk of a "new Vietnam." Trump continues to demand Maduro's resignation, maintaining that all options, including military action, remain on the table.
Trump: They took our energy rights
The tension, however, shows no sign of receding. In new statements, Trump maintained that Washington wishes to recover oil rights in Venezuela, which were supposedly taken from the USA. "Remember, they took all our energy rights. They took all our oil not long ago, and we want it back, but they took it. They took it illegally," Trump stated in new remarks at Andrews base. Trump is likely referring to the nationalization of Venezuela's oil assets from foreign companies, including Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, in 2007 under Hugo Chávez.
The order
Washington accuses Caracas of not doing enough to combat drug trafficking. According to the New York Times, Trump has authorized secret CIA operations in Venezuela, while US media report that Washington may launch attacks against drug cartels in Venezuela in the near future. In fact, the American president is reported to have signed a confidential directive as early as last August for the principle of using military force against Latin American drug cartels.
Deployment of forces
Subsequently, significant additional US military units were deployed to the Caribbean region. Washington began launching air strikes against vessels that, according to the American government, were carrying drugs to the USA in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific Ocean. In November, the Pentagon announced that a US carrier strike group, led by the USS Gerald R. Ford, had entered the area of responsibility of the US Southern Command to combat drug smuggling in the region. It is noted that the USA has carried out 25 known attacks on alleged "narco-terrorist" ships, killing 95 people in attacks in the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific Ocean since last September. The tension escalated when US forces seized the sanctioned oil tanker Skipper off the coast of Venezuela on December 10, an action that Caracas described as "international piracy."
We are ready, says the Venezuelan military
While the Americans are gathering forces and have already moved to attacks, the Venezuelan military is signaling that it is ready to defend the country's independence and territorial integrity. "The National Armed Forces of Venezuela categorically reject the delusional statements of US President Donald Trump, made on December 16, where he ruthlessly threatened our country with military actions and ordered a full naval blockade with the intent of seizing ships carrying oil from Venezuela, which constitutes a crude act of piracy," the military stated in an announcement. The escalation of threats to use force against Venezuela aims at "regime change, the seizure of oil and other strategic resources of the republic," the Ministry of Defense emphasizes, adding that the United States seeks to revive the Monroe Doctrine and "establish their neo-colonial dominance in the Western Hemisphere." "The people, the military, and the police of Venezuela will safeguard the constitutional and democratic system of the republic, the territorial integrity of the country, its legal rights in air and sea space, and will defend freedom, sovereignty, independence, and peace," the Ministry of Defense statement reads.
Maduro thanks Russia
The President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, thanked Russia for condemning the aggressive actions of the USA against his country, as stated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Venezuela, Yvan Gil Pinto. "On behalf of President Nicolás Maduro, we express our gratitude to Russia for its strong statements condemning the aggressive actions of the United States that threaten the lives of our people," he wrote on his Telegram channel. According to the top Venezuelan diplomat, the rejection of US imperialist ambitions in the Caribbean is growing globally. He emphasized that Washington is violating the Zone of Peace that had been proclaimed in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2014. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, stated on Wednesday that the actions of the US administration in the Caribbean have been widely condemned by almost all countries, while Europe has remained alarmingly silent on the issue.
Economic catastrophe
Now that the USA has seized a Venezuelan oil tanker and President Donald Trump has declared an oil naval blockade, the results may "destroy" the Venezuelan economy, which is already in crisis, and increase pressure on President Nicolás Maduro, potentially leading to regime change, geopolitical and energy analysts argue. The big question is how far Washington will go with the blockade of sanctioned oil tankers—Trump's announcement on social media was sparse on details—and how long it will last, because it is unlikely that Maduro will resign voluntarily in the near future, said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. "This could be catastrophic. We are talking about an economy where over 80% - perhaps even over 90% - of foreign exchange earnings for the government come from oil. Oil is absolutely dominant," Monaldi stated, noting that Venezuela's only other significant exports are small mining and seafood industries.
Collapse
"This legally disputed action—as a blockade is historically considered an act of war—may cause hyperinflation in Venezuela, further weakening of its currency, economic recession, and fuel shortages for its population," the analyst points out. Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves in the world—estimated by OPEC at 303 billion barrels—yet it produces less than 1% of global oil production. Its production has collapsed from 3.2 million barrels per day in 2000 to less than 1 million barrels today, under the authoritarian socialist governments of Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, due to a combination of mismanagement, underinvestment, and increasing US sanctions. Venezuela, before Trump's decisions, was selling its oil at a discount of up to 35% below market price.
Escalation of aggression
"In a blockade, it is very easy to spot an oil ship. We will see how they move from the rhetoric of the present to the actual application of policy," Monaldi stressed. Experts argue that the naval blockade can reduce production and decrease exports of the country's most valuable product, further worsening the crisis of the economy. Trump's announcements signal the escalation of aggression against Maduro, whose last two re-elections have been criticized internationally as illegitimate. Maduro claims that the deployment of naval forces near his country is part of a plan to overthrow him and "steal" Venezuela's oil, under the pretext of an operation against drug cartels. Venezuela has bypassed the US oil embargo for years, selling crude oil at extremely low prices, mainly to China, income which, according to Trump, funds "narco-terrorism, human trafficking, murder, and kidnappings."
600 oil tankers under sanctions
Globally there are approximately 600 oil tankers under US sanctions, of which 23 are listed in programs targeting Venezuela, according to an AFP analysis with data from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control and the International Maritime Organization. Of these, six had been sanctioned last week. Caracas will likely now face pressure to lower its prices in the illegal market even further. "Discounts in the price per barrel are expected to accelerate and possibly deter many ships from going to Venezuela," said Monaldi, predicting a "dramatic reduction." Monaldi predicts that exports may decrease by as much as half, "depending on how often sanctioned oil tankers are seized." After the seizure of the Skipper by US forces, PDVSA failed to load any new oil tanker for six days, a source from the Venezuelan parliament told AFP. "This will create a serious problem, because PDVSA has at most 15 days of storage capacity." Monaldi said that oil storage is expensive and "most likely they will stop production, which could decrease by about 400,000 barrels per day."
The case of Chevron
Trump's order has not yet affected oil exports to the USA from Chevron, which operates in Venezuela with a special license. Chevron represents about 10% of Venezuela's production, but is no longer allowed to transfer money to the government and, therefore, pays taxes and other fees in crude oil—a fact that deprives Caracas of necessary dollars. "The license granted to Chevron in July allows it to take 50% of what is produced by the joint ventures it operates with PDVSA," Oswaldo Felizzola, a Venezuelan energy researcher from the IESA business school, told AFP. The company predicts that lower oil exports "will cut off a key pipeline for the Venezuelan economy" in the near future. The economist Asdrubal Oliveros stated on Venezuelan radio that the reduction in exports to Asia could cost Venezuela billions of dollars in annual revenue. China, which receives 80% of Venezuela's crude oil exports, will be the one most affected.
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