The adequacy of the United States nuclear triad is in immediate danger, as the LGM-35 Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program is collapsing under the weight of budget cuts and mismanagement at the American Pentagon.
The commander of the United States Air Force Global Strike Command, General Stephen Davis, revealed that the LGM-35 Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program remains in a restructuring phase and faces significant challenges, after nearly two years of extensive review.
A clear timeline for the deployment of the new strategic missile has not yet been established, forcing the Air Force to further extend the service life of the LGM-30 Minuteman III missiles from the 1970s, as the only way to maintain the land based leg of the nuclear triad.
Davis stressed that the Sentinel program is one of the largest currently being implemented by the Department of Defense and the most important modernization program of the Air Force, underscoring the importance of maintaining existing missile capabilities until it becomes operational.
How the project to renew the Minuteman III collapsed
The United States Air Force awarded Northrop Grumman in 2020 a development contract worth 13.3 billion dollars to replace more than 400 active Minuteman III missiles on a one to one basis, with an initial estimated total value of approximately 100 billion dollars.
However, as engineering requirements expanded, the cost of the program continued to rise, exceeding 130 billion dollars by the end of 2024, triggering the Nunn-McCurdy Act and forcing Congress to demand a full restructuring.
Exorbitant cost and total restructuring
In July 2025, the Pentagon revealed that the total cost of the program had reached 160 billion dollars, and even after restructuring remained at 140 billion dollars, more than 80% higher than the original estimate of 77.7 billion dollars.
A significant factor in the cost increase is the inability of the new program to reuse the existing Minuteman III nuclear silos, which means that entirely new silos will have to be built.
The Air Force examined alternative deployment options, such as installation in lakes or tunnels, but ultimately rejected them.
Dismissals and loss of trust
In June 2024, United States Air Force General Charles Clegg was removed from his position as director of the Sentinel program, with the service citing a loss of confidence in his abilities and stating that he did not follow organizational procedures.
His removal coincided with growing scrutiny of the program, with the House Appropriations Committee stating that it was shocked when it learned of the massive cost increases.
The target for a first test in 2028 deemed unfeasible
The continuous restructuring of the program increased uncertainty regarding the start of the flight testing phase, with an Air Force official confirming in June 2025 that, while the first test flight of the missile, which had been scheduled for 2026, no longer has a confirmed date.
The first test flight was originally scheduled for 2023-2024, but was delayed by more than two years.
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) had estimated at the time that the first flight test was scheduled for March 2028, placing it four years behind the original timeline, although this date now appears particularly unlikely to be achievable.
The suffocating air force budget
The cost overruns affecting the Sentinel program have emerged as the Air Force faces an increasingly constrained budget, with two new bomber programs, the ongoing procurement and maintenance of the F-35A, the development of the F-47 fighter, and the development of an AEW&C system and a more survivable tanker type, among the main investments considered particularly urgent.
As a result of the massive delays and cost overruns affecting the Sentinel program, the Air Force, as revealed in September 2025 in a Government Accountability Office report, is considering the extreme option of extending the service life of the Minuteman III missile until 2050.
The United States falls behind Russia, China and North Korea
The Minuteman III is the oldest class of intercontinental ballistic missile in service worldwide, with China, Russia and North Korea continuing to modernize their own ICBM arsenals at a rapid pace.
The first two countries have integrated hypersonic glide vehicles capable of intercontinental strikes, while the North Korean military did so with medium range missiles in 2024.
The United States military relies on missile technology from the 1970s
The Minuteman III missile, introduced in 1970, has reached the limits of its service life extension and has exceeded its original lifespan by decades.
As previously observed by the commander of United States Strategic Command, Charles A. Richard: “You cannot extend the life of the Minuteman III. We are reaching the point where it is not cost effective to extend the life of the Minuteman III. Soon we will reach the point where you will not be able to do it at all.”
Richard warned that the missiles are so old that their original designers have died and engineers no longer have the necessary technical documentation.
The United States nuclear triad is paralyzed
“This thing is so old that in some cases the technical drawings no longer exist, or where drawings do exist, they are six generations behind the industrial standard. And there is no one who can understand them. They are no longer alive,” he warned. The possibility that problems with the Sentinel program could lead the United States to abandon the third leg of its nuclear triad and reallocate funds to strengthen the arsenals of ballistic missile submarines and strategic bombers has already been discussed.
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