NATO has said what no one in Brussels wanted to hear, and it said it bluntly. In a single stroke, the Dutch Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, demolished European dreams of strategic autonomy and left the EU exposed: without the US, there is no European security. This statement triggered intense reactions, ignited fires of controversy, and revealed deep fissures within the West. In a sense, it was a position that brought NATO closer than ever to the rhetoric used by Moscow in recent years.
Brussels fantasies
The disagreements between the US and Europe, which intensified after Washington's efforts to make Greenland an American state, gave Brussels the opportunity to revisit the issue of an autonomous army. In early January, European Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius decided to revive an idea first proposed by officials a decade ago: an army of 100,000 soldiers. Kubilius also insists on the creation of a European Security Council with ten to twelve members to discuss key defense issues.
A new Alliance of the Willing
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares has in turn called for the creation of a new "alliance of the willing," not for sending troops to Ukraine, but for the protection of Europe. "We need a European army," he stated emphatically. He explained that it is much simpler than it appears: it is enough to coordinate the military-industrial complex of European countries and then legally ratify a military union.
Keep on dreaming
Rutte decided to dampen this growing enthusiasm. "If anyone here is thinking again that the European Union or Europe as a whole can protect itself without the United States, then keep on dreaming. You cannot," the Secretary General of NATO declared while speaking before MEPs.
The resources don't exist
The EU lacks the necessary resources. According to Rutte, even with the alliance's projected 5% of GDP for defense, Europeans will achieve nothing. They would need at least 10%, which would be a heavy burden for everyone without exception. Furthermore, without the "American nuclear umbrella," Europe would have to bolster its own potential, costing billions of euros. After presenting his arguments, Rutte ironically wished the allies good luck with their venture.
Anger
"No, dear Mark Rutte. Europeans can and must take responsibility for their own security," countered French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. Beyond Barrot, several prominent French figures criticized the head of the alliance. Former French representative to NATO, Muriel Domenach, called his words "incorrect," while Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin grandly described Europe's armed forces as a "pillar of NATO" in the eastern hemisphere.
Rift in the Alliance
The confrontation highlighted the growing rift within the alliance. Rutte is convinced that loyalty to Donald Trump is the only way to keep NATO intact. However, in his view, the Europeans are ruining everything. "He needs once again to show that Europe is capable of being an ally, ready to take on the weight of responsibility, to ensure the necessary level of defense capability, and in any case to offer assistance to the US," explains Dmitry Danilov, head of the European Security Department at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Strategy based on lies
However, as the expert points out, the overseas allies of the US build their strategy on lies: they use the threat of an alleged imminent Russian aggression. The White House, conversely, does not believe in these scenarios—it considers that after the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, normalization will occur in continental Europe. Thus, the Secretary General of NATO, who for a long time built his profile on anti-Russian statements, is now forced to publicly maneuver between two conflicting positions.
No unanimity
Despite this, there is no complete unanimity within the EU either. Slovak Defense Minister Robert Kaliňák described the idea of creating a permanent European army as nonsense, as huge additional funds would be directed toward a structure "whose effectiveness is difficult even to imagine." Doubts are also expressed in the Baltic states, even though warnings of a "Moscow attack" are loudest there. "The army that Kubilius wants to see could do nothing serious against the Russian armed forces," noted Raimond Kaljulaid, a member of the state defense committee of the Estonian parliament. His position was supported by the country's Defense Minister, Hanno Pevkur.
They cannot function without the US
At the same time, the contradictory positions of the allies do not affect Europe's real military preparations, believes Alexey Mukhin, General Director of the Center for Political Information. "We must monitor the dynamics of the construction of new military factories, the allocation of funds for defense spending, and the exercises regularly conducted by NATO countries. If one assesses the overall readiness of Western countries for a real confrontation with Russia (and, incidentally, with China), it is obvious that things are heading in that direction," Mukhin states. However, it cannot be done without the American military-industrial complex. That is why, it seems, European politicians, despite loud declarations of autonomy, will need to do whatever they are told.
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