Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, in an interview with Handelsblatt, is sending a clear warning signal, cautioning that the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs does not mark any substantive retreat in American trade policy.
On the contrary, as he stresses, the global economy is moving toward a more fragmented, less US-centered trade system, with serious consequences for inflation, growth, and the dollar itself.
Rogoff is unequivocal: the judicial ruling may limit arbitrariness, but it does not disarm Donald Trump.
Instead, it provides him with an incentive to use alternative mechanisms in order to maintain high tariffs and continue his aggressive trade strategy.
A general 15% tariff has already been imposed on most imports into the United States, with limited and temporary exceptions.
For most countries, including the European Union, no meaningful relief is in sight.
Only China, which had faced the harshest measures, is seeing partial de-escalation.
Despite institutional constraints, Rogoff notes that the president still retains significant tools of pressure.
He can no longer impose tariffs arbitrarily without the required procedures, yet the strategic direction remains unchanged.
The result is an environment of prolonged uncertainty that erodes market confidence, discourages investment, and accelerates geoeconomic realignments.
As for inflation, the picture is deceptive.
Although it stood at 2.4% in January, close to the Fed’s target, the risks have not disappeared.
Businesses initially absorbed part of the cost, fearing uncertainty and political pressures.
However, as Rogoff emphasizes, this strategy cannot continue indefinitely.
Gradually, the cost will pass into prices, and the American consumer will be asked to pay the bill.
From 2026 onward, inflationary pressures may intensify, as the already imposed tariffs become fully embedded in the pricing system.
Harsh message for Europe
For Europe, the message is even harsher.
Trade agreements remain under a cloud of uncertainty, and the era of American predictability has passed.
Derisking no longer concerns only China, but also the United States.
The European Union is being called upon to accelerate efforts toward economic and strategic autonomy, in a world where old certainties are collapsing.
The most alarming element of the analysis concerns the global monetary system.
Rogoff estimates that the policies of the current American administration will strengthen the importance of other currencies, such as the euro and the renminbi.
US public debt is deemed unsustainable, borrowing costs are rising, the dollar is increasingly used as a sanctions tool, while Trump is exerting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.
If monetary policy becomes subordinated to political considerations and price stability yields to short-term growth objectives, inflation could reignite forcefully.
The conclusion is weighty: the United States is risking the dollar’s privilege as the world’s reserve currency.
The transition to a more multipolar monetary system may not be immediate, but the direction has already been set.
China is steadily strengthening its role, while many countries are accelerating the diversification of their foreign exchange reserves.
Despite the impressive momentum of the American economy, fueled by the explosive growth of artificial intelligence, the structural shifts in global trade appear deep and difficult to reverse.
Kenneth Rogoff’s warning is clear: the world is not returning to the old model.
It is moving toward greater fragmentation, less dependence on the United States, and heightened geoeconomic tension.
And this time, the cost may prove not only commercial, but systemic.
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