In the elections of 19 April 2026, Bulgaria may change course and join the group of “dissenters” of Southeastern Europe, following the steps of countries such as Serbia and the Visegrad countries (Hungary and Slovakia), with which it shares common positions regarding the policies of the European Union and the stance toward Ukraine.
Rumen Radev, former president of the country and head of the new “March 3 Movement”, is expected to lead the electoral battle, aiming to reverse Bulgaria’s course and revise its stance toward Russia and Ukraine.
Radev has already been described by the Western press as a “pro Russian” candidate, however the truth is that he promotes a policy based on the “protection of Bulgaria’s interests” and the restoration of strong relations with all major powers, including the Russians.
Concerns also in Ukraine
Kyiv is concerned about the possibility of a Radev victory, as if Bulgaria is led by the government of the former president, military aid to the regime of Volodymir Zelensky will most likely be suspended.
From 2022 to 2025, Bulgaria has supplied Ukraine with weapons worth approximately 3 billion dollars.
Radev’s shift toward restoring diplomatic relations with Russia and the defense of a policy of neutrality are causing serious concerns about future geopolitical balances in the region.
Amid this political uncertainty, Bulgaria is threatened with an intense “diplomatic crisis”, given that the strategy of its allies in the Western world has been called into question by Radev’s “pro Russian” movement.
Difficult political juncture
The political juncture in Bulgaria is not easy, as the country is in a period of intense political and social unrest.
The Bulgarian elections of April will be the ninth within nine years and, like the previous ones, will take place in a climate of intense socioeconomic crisis and high levels of corruption.
This situation has led to mass demonstrations and popular mobilizations, as well as frequent elections.
Radev, who served as president from 2017 to 2026, decided to lead a political party and confront the traditional political establishment of Bulgaria, which he accuses of having led the country into economic and political stagnation.
Although he did not manage to complete the establishment of his new party by the deadline of 4 March 2026, it is clear that he is trying to present himself as a leader who can bring change.
What the polls show
Polls show that Radev’s movement has significant support from the parties of the Left and the patriotic camp, with estimates placing it in first position with percentages ranging from 27% to 33%, far ahead of the other parties.
He has managed to win the support of the Socialists and the more “patriotic” forces of the country, which gives him the possibility to form a governing coalition.
His pre election campaign aims at restoring “national pride” and securing “strategic neutrality” for Bulgaria, promoting a policy of independence from Western interests.
What Radev wants to achieve
Radev’s policy, although it opposes the continuation of military aid to Ukraine, is not expected to lead to a drastic rupture with the West.
Bulgaria will continue to be a strategic partner of major European powers, such as Germany and Italy, while the opening toward Russia may be limited.
Radev, although a patriot and defender of national independence, is not expected to proceed with a radical overturning of Bulgaria’s foreign policy, but rather with a correction of relations and the maintenance of good relations with the rest of the world.
However, the political change he proposes may cause serious repercussions in the region, potentially contributing to the slowdown of military support to Ukraine and to a shift in the geopolitical map of Southeastern Europe.
Σχόλια αναγνωστών