There is a view that the primary strategy of US President Donald Trump at this moment is to promote the rise of moderate forces in Iran who would be willing to comply with Washington's demands, similar to what occurred in Venezuela following the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro. Subsequently, Trump could declare victory in the war and bring it to a close. However, it was revealed yesterday that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and closely aligned with radical circles of the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard), emerged as the new Supreme Leader—a candidate Trump had previously labeled unacceptable. This has led to commentary that the aforementioned strategy is currently failing, a setback to which Trump himself has contributed.
Threatening with... genocide
On Saturday, the US President stated that the Iranian President's apologies for attacks against Persian Gulf states and promises to cease them are signs of weakness or near-surrender. He added that he will further intensify attacks and proceed with the destruction of entire "population groups," a statement that, in its phrasing, resembles a precursor to an act of genocide. Although it could be viewed as a simple extortionary measure ("do what I want or it will get worse"), it is evident that such remarks work against moderate forces desiring dialogue with the US, if such forces even exist in Iran. Trump is demonstrating that any concession, even statements by the deemed "moderate" President Pezeshkian regarding the cessation of attacks on neighboring countries, is viewed by Washington as weakness leading to a harder stance. This strengthens the positions of those in Tehran who believe there is nothing to negotiate with the US.
Does he want the end of the war?
This also raises the question: Is Trump actually interested in a swift end to the war in Iran? A prolonged conflict would only pose a problem for Trump in three scenarios:
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If US forces suffer heavy casualties.
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If Iran finds a way to strike US soil (e.g., drones according to the "Ukrainian" Operation "Web").
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If economic problems arise within the US, such as fuel price hikes. If none of these occur, even a long conflict will not be particularly problematic for Trump.
China and Europe to suffer most
Economically, the conflict will primarily hit US competitors—namely China, Europe, and Middle Eastern energy companies—while Americans will benefit from rising oil prices and arms sales. Fuel prices within the US could theoretically be controlled through agreements with oil companies already reaping excess profits from exports. Furthermore, the US would serve as a "safe haven" for capital from around the world. The war could also be utilized for stricter control over the domestic situation in the US and the restriction of citizens' rights and freedoms.
Potential problems
A problematic factor for Trump could be the increase in state spending due to a long conflict, which would exacerbate the deficit and public debt. However, this could be managed by encouraging neighboring countries to attack Iran, minimizing US spending and losses by providing only intelligence and "targeted strikes." In this way, the US could wage war for years, creating problems for its competitors and reaping benefits without significant losses. Of course, a long conflict is risky for Trump, as Iran may find ways to cause greater damage to US forces, and the domestic economic situation of the US could be affected. However, Trump may consider this risk acceptable. As emphasized, the only thing that can truly pressure him to end the war before "all operational goals are met" is major losses for the US, whether economic or human.
Trump: I am not satisfied with the election of Mojtaba Khamenei
Donald Trump, commenting to the media on the election of Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, as Supreme Leader of Iran, stated that he is "not satisfied" and will be monitoring the development of events. Meanwhile, US Senator Lindsey Graham stated that the new Supreme Leader does not satisfy the US and that "he will suffer the same fate as his father." Mojtaba Khamenei was officially declared the new Supreme Leader of Iran. The Assembly of Experts elected him unanimously, despite his candidacy as the son of Ali Khamenei being considered controversial. The Fars agency reported that the 56-year-old Seyed Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the deceased Ayatollah, was elected as the third Supreme Leader of Iran.
Who the candidates were
Several candidates vied for the position, including: • Alireza Arafi, a close associate of Ali Khamenei and Vice President of the Assembly of Experts. • The cleric Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, a member of the Assembly of Experts and representative of the most conservative wing of the clergy. • Hasan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini. According to the agency, the election of Mojtaba Khamenei was unanimous. Despite media outlets previously identifying him as the most likely successor to his father, a portion of the Shiite clergy considers the hereditary transition of power controversial and contrary to tradition.
He does not hold the title of Ayatollah
Furthermore, unlike Ali Khamenei, his son is not a mujtahid and does not hold the title of Ayatollah, a fact that rendered his candidacy controversial according to the Iranian Constitution. Nevertheless, experts emphasized that the system can show flexibility if the elites reach a consensus. The Revolutionary Guard has already sworn allegiance to the new Supreme Leader, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi congratulated him and swore an oath on behalf of all Iranian diplomatic staff. "In this difficult period for the country, the election of Mojtaba Khamenei ensures the preservation of sovereignty and territorial integrity, strengthening national unity," stated the Foreign Minister.
US reaction
US President Donald Trump had previously stated that he considers Mojtaba Khamenei's candidacy unacceptable, as Washington wanted a new leader who would bring harmony and peace to Iran. He also stated that the new leader "will not last long" without US approval. Senator Lindsey Graham stated that Mojtaba Khamenei does not satisfy the US and "will suffer the same fate as his father," accusing him of living lavishly while the people of Iran suffered and participating in the promotion of intolerance.
Intervention from China
China states that it opposes any attack against Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, following threats from Israeli military officials and US senators against the successor of his deceased father, Ali Khamenei. "China opposes interference in the internal affairs of other countries under any pretext, and Iran's sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity must be respected," stated Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun. He added that the decision to appoint a new leader "is a decision for the Iranian side based on its Constitution."
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