The most dangerous US military plan returns after 38 years: What Trump is preparing with a handful of Marines

Two critical developments this week indicate that the war between the US and Iran is entering a new and particularly dangerous phase. On March 14, the United States bombed Kharg Island, a small island off the Iranian coast home to one of the country's most significant oil terminals, considered vital to its economy. President Donald Trump stated that military installations on Kharg were "completely destroyed," while clarifying that energy infrastructure was not targeted. Simultaneously, Washington ordered the dispatch of approximately 2,500 Marines, embarked on up to three amphibious assault ships, from the Indo-Pacific toward the Middle East. The combination of these moves suggests that the US may be preparing for the seizure of islands in the Straits of Hormuz in the coming weeks. Such control would secure the passage of oil tankers through this critical maritime gateway.

Trade frozen

Tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz have been under constant threat of Iranian attacks since the beginning of the conflict. For the US, ensuring freedom of navigation is of strategic importance, as a prolonged crisis could alienate neutral countries and Gulf allies who depend on oil exports. Under these circumstances, the American Navy is considering tanker escorts, while the deployment of Marines is viewed as preparation for a potential assault on Iranian islands. Many analysts characterize the situation as unprecedented; however, there is a clear historical precedent from nearly four decades ago.

The 'Tanker War'

During the Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988), the Strait of Hormuz was transformed into a field of fierce conflict. By 1987, both sides systematically targeted each other's oil tankers. More than 450 commercial vessels were attacked, of which approximately 250 were tankers. Over 400 sailors were killed, hundreds were injured, and the economic impact was enormous. To protect the energy flow, the US Navy began escorting Kuwaiti ships that had been reflagged as American. In May 1987, the frigate USS Stark was struck by an Iraqi Exocet missile, resulting in the death of 37 Americans. This incident led Washington into more direct military involvement in the Persian Gulf. The period of 1979–1987 was full of humiliations for the US: from the hostage crisis in Tehran to the failed Desert One rescue operation and the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing that left 241 American service members dead.

Operation 'Praying Mantis'

In April 1988, following damage caused by an Iranian mine to the frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts, the US launched Operation Praying Mantis. In a single day, the US Navy destroyed Iranian oil platforms, sank or damaged several warships, and neutralized a large portion of the Iranian fleet. It is considered one of the largest naval surface engagements since World War II. Despite the intensity, the US did not proceed with a ground invasion of Iran at that time.

The plan that was never implemented

According to former US Navy officer Malcolm Nance, Washington had seriously considered a plan to seize Iranian islands in the Strait of Hormuz. The plan envisioned the occupation of the islands of Larak, Hormuz, Qeshm, and Hengam to blockade the Bandar Abbas base and bring the passage under control. However, it was abandoned due to the immense risk. "Hundreds of thousands of Revolutionary Guard and Basij members would launch suicide attacks from the surrounding mountains," Malcolm Nance noted. Furthermore, supply lines would be extremely vulnerable, while operations would be conducted under constant threat from drones, missiles, and minefields.

Why the risks remain the same

Malcolm Nance argues that the reasons that deterred an invasion in 1988 still apply today:

• Supply bases in Gulf countries may be attacked or may refuse cooperation.

• Amphibious forces would operate under constant fire.

• Available forces are insufficient. Even in 1988, a scenario involving at least 6,000 Marines was deemed inadequate. Today, the deployment of just 2,500 is considered extremely limited.

The danger of a new military 'nightmare'

Nance warns that an island-seizing operation could evolve into a failure similar to the Russian operation at Hostomel in Ukraine, where forces were isolated without sufficient support. Such an action would be perceived by Iran as a full-scale invasion, with unpredictable consequences. Gulf countries might not allow the use of their bases, exposing American forces. The possibility of an "Operation Eagle Claw" type failure, reminiscent of 1980, is returning to the forefront.

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