It is difficult to predict what stance the US will take toward Iran unless there is confirmation that an American ship has been attacked, notes analyst Alexandru Hudisteanu—a claim currently denied by the American side. As he explains, in the event of a strike, "it is not something that can be easily hidden." The analyst emphasizes to Al Jazeera that it must be considered that the two sides remain essentially in a state of war, a fact that increases the risk of escalation in every incident.
It is noted that reports indicate the Iranians struck a US Navy vessel with two missiles. According to the Fars agency—and as broadcast by Al Jazeera—the attack took place near Jask Island, after the Americans first ignored Iranian warnings to stop. So far, no further details regarding the attack have been made known. However, according to Axios, a senior US official denied that an American warship was hit by the IRGC. Earlier, the Iranian military also announced that its forces stopped US warships from entering the Strait of Hormuz "with a strict and direct warning."
Hormuz as a unique negotiating weapon
For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz constitutes the "sole negotiating card" it possesses in potential peace talks. This means that Tehran is likely to do whatever it can to "defend" it, even with moves such as publishing a new control map of the area—an action characterized by Hudisteanu as rather "excessive." According to the analyst, this specific map contradicts international law, intensifying concerns over further tension in the region.
High risk of miscalculations
The current impasse creates a dangerous environment where "there is a high risk of miscalculations by both sides," as he warned. In such a fragile balance, even a single incident could lead to a broader conflict with unpredictable consequences for the region and the global economy.
The map that changes the balance
From this perspective, the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps presented a new, highly ambitious map for the Strait of Hormuz, declaring that the defined zones will be controlled and managed by the Iranian armed forces. The new lines cover an extensive geographical area. To the east, the zone extends from Mount Mubarak in Iran to the southern region of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. To the west, the line stretches from Kashmir Island in Iran to Umm Al Quwain in the UAE.
A blow to the UAE strategy
In practice, this means that the ability of the UAE to bypass Hormuz to export oil is drastically limited. Fujairah constituted a key hub for continuing exports during the crisis; however, with the expansion of Iranian lines beyond it, this advantage is called into question. To an extent, the new boundaries appear to restrict even the use of the UAE's own territorial waters.
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