A development with strong political and geopolitical symbolism comes from Rome, as the Italian parliament approved for the first time a resolution providing for the initiation of procedures for the gradual lifting of sanctions against Russia after the end of hostilities in Ukraine.
The decision is considered particularly significant, as it comes at a time when Brussels insists on the policy of continuous sanctions and is already preparing the 21st package of restrictive measures against Moscow.
At the time when the European leadership speaks of further economic pressure toward Russia, Italy seems to recognize what more and more political and business circles in Europe admit privately: that the policy of sanctions has not brought the results promised by its architects.
This decision does not immediately change European policy toward Moscow.
However, it constitutes perhaps the clearest political message to date that within the European Union serious doubts are beginning to appear regarding the effectiveness of the strategy of perpetual sanctions.
For the first time, one of the founding and largest states of the European Union officially puts on the table not how new sanctions will be imposed, but how they could at some point be lifted.
The role of Lega
The vote took place in the Parliament of Italy a few days before the European Union Summit on June 18-19 and followed the speech of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in parliament, during which the main positions of Rome on the issues that will be placed on the European agenda were presented.
The resolution, which was approved with 170 votes in favor, 138 against, and 3 abstentions, reaffirms the support of Italy toward Ukraine and speaks of the need to achieve a "just and lasting peace" with full respect for the sovereignty and independence of the country.
However, the element that caused the greatest interest is the reference to the "gradual lifting of sanctions after the end of the conflict", as well as the provision that sanctions can be used as a negotiating tool within the framework of a future peace process.
The specific formulation is considered particularly significant, as for the first time a major country of the European Union officially puts on the table the possibility of an organized mechanism for lifting sanctions against Russia, abandoning the logic that restrictive measures constitute a permanent situation without a clear exit strategy.
According to the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, a decisive role in shaping the final text was played by Lega, which for some time now has appeared more skeptical toward the strict line of Brussels on Russia.
The party reportedly contributed to the addition of a special reference regarding the enlargement process of the European Union, at a time when discussions about accelerating the accession path of Ukraine are intensifying.
Mechanism for lifting sanctions
The resolution maintains the support toward Ukraine and its citizens, however it introduces for the first time officially the need to create a mechanism for the gradual lifting of sanctions after the termination of the conflict.
This is a position that until recently was considered almost forbidden in the European political environment.
The development acquires even greater significance as it comes in complete contrast to the line promoted by the head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas.
She has made it clear that the new package of sanctions will target mainly the increased revenues of Russia from energy exports, while it will also extend to banks, financial institutions, and the Russian defense industry.
The specific formulation may look technical, but politically it is extremely important.
Until today the dominant line in Brussels was that sanctions constitute an almost permanent tool of pressure and that their lifting will be examined only under exceptionally strict conditions.
The Italian initiative shows that a major European country is beginning to think about the post-war landscape and the relations of Europe with Russia after the end of the conflict.
Meloni had warned about the need for dialogue
Despite the fact that the government of Giorgia Meloni is numbered among the most steadfast supporters of Ukraine within the European Union, the Italian Prime Minister had from time to time let it be shown that long-term stability on the European continent cannot be built without some form of dialogue with Russia.
Meloni had argued that military and political support toward Kyiv must not exclude the diplomatic dimension of the crisis, emphasizing in various interventions of hers that sooner or later Europe will need to find a way of understanding with Moscow for the day after the war.
Although she never publicly questioned the European framework of sanctions, she frequently avoided the rhetoric of permanent conflict adopted by certain European officials.
Instead, she insisted that the ultimate goal must be a just and lasting peace that will ensure stability in Europe.
Under this prism, the decision of the Italian parliament does not constitute a bolt from the blue.
On the contrary, it reflects a broader discussion that has been developing for a long time in Rome regarding how Europe–Russia relations will be shaped after the end of the war.
Italy seems to perceive that even if the conflict terminates, geography will not change.
Russia will remain a key factor of European security and any sustainable architecture of stability will require some form of political dialogue and rapprochement.
Kallas suffered a shock
Kallas has repeatedly requested even greater economic and military support toward Kyiv insisting on the strategy of escalating pressures toward Moscow.
However, the Italian initiative shows that not all European governments share the same approach.
Information indicates that Kallas is intensely dissatisfied with the Italian initiative while diplomatic sources speak of a real shock in Brussels.
According to information that has been published, the new package of sanctions being examined by Brussels may extend even to religious entities and persons connected to the Russian Orthodox Church, including Patriarch Kirill, a fact which is expected to cause new reactions.
The Italian decision constitutes perhaps the first institutional admission that Europe will need sooner or later to discuss not only how it will impose sanctions, but also how it will lift them.
Sanctions packages on Russia ineffective
For more than three years, the European Union invested politically and economically in the perception that perpetual pressure would lead Russia to a strategic retreat.
However, despite the dozens of packages of sanctions, the Russian economy continues to function, energy exports were readjusted to new markets, and the conflict in Ukraine remains open.
The decision of Italy does not yet signal a change in European policy.
But it constitutes a clear message that inside Europe serious doubts are beginning to appear regarding the viability of a strategy based exclusively on new sanctions and perpetual confrontation.
And perhaps for the first time in years, the discussion in European capitals is beginning to shift from the question "how will we increase sanctions" to the much more difficult question: "how will we end the war and return to a new balance with Russia".
Europe is divided
Italy is not the only country expressing concern.
Hungary has repeatedly exercised criticism on the sanctions, arguing that they hurt Europe more than Russia.
Similar reservations have been formulated from time to time in Slovakia as well.
Even in countries that remain officially aligned with Brussels, an increasing anxiety is observed regarding the economic consequences of the prolonged confrontation.
The Italian initiative thus acquires broader significance, as it can constitute the first step for a more open discussion inside the European Union.
The question that Brussels avoids
There is a crucial question that until today the European leadership avoids answering: What exactly is the exit strategy.
The sanctions were imposed as a tool of pressure.
But every tool of pressure also needs a political objective.
If Europe is not willing to discuss their lifting even after the end of the war, then the sanctions cease to constitute a negotiating tool and turn into a permanent state of confrontation.
Italy seems to recognize this contradiction.
That is why the discussion that opened in Rome goes far beyond the limits of a parliamentary decision.
The day after Europe–Russia relations
The greatest question concerns the future.
Even if the war in Ukraine terminates within the next few years, Europe will continue to coexist geographically with Russia.
The need for commercial relations, energy security, investments, and regional stability is not going to disappear.
This does not mean a return to the past.
But it means that sooner or later there will need to be a new framework of understanding.
The decision of the Italian parliament perhaps constitutes the first official admission of this reality.
And if the initiative of Rome finds supporters in other European capitals as well, then the discussion about the future of the sanctions may evolve into one of the most important political conflicts that the European Union will face in the coming years.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών