An initiative to forge a multinational front with support from NATO, which will aim at supporting Ukraine and reinforcing Western influence in the Black Sea, is being prepared by the Turkey of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a fact that signals a departure from the long-standing policy of Ankara to restrict the participation of foreign military forces in its strategically sensitive region. Recent correspondence of the Minister of Defense, Yasar Guler, a copy of which came into the possession of Nordic Monitor, reveals that Turkey is playing a leading role in a multinational framework known as the "Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine", a group of 33 countries preparing security arrangements for a possible post-war settlement between Russia and Ukraine. Within the framework of the initiative, Ankara is establishing a Maritime Component Command in the Beykoz region of Istanbul, overlooking the Bosporus, a development that could place Turkey at the center of future security operations in the Black Sea. According to the letter of Guler, dated May 18, 2026, the initiative focuses on the creation of a multinational operational headquarters known as the Multinational Force Ukraine, MNF-U, whose core command structure is being established in Paris. Within the framework of this broader effort, Turkey has undertaken the planning and leadership of maritime security operations in the Black Sea. The proposed Maritime Component Command will be responsible for maintaining regional stability and maritime security, while adhering to the restrictions imposed by the Montreux Convention of 1936.
The plan represents a remarkable evolution of Turkish policy. For decades, Ankara sought to maintain a delicate balance between Russia and the West in the Black Sea, relying on the Montreux Convention of 1936 to restrict the military presence of non-riparian powers and to prevent the transformation of the region into a field of direct confrontation between NATO and Moscow. Successive Turkish governments considered the convention not only a foundation of national sovereignty but also an essential tool for managing relations with Russia, an important energy supplier and core commercial partner. Despite the fact, however, that Turkish officials insist that the new initiative will remain under national command and will operate in full compliance with the Montreux Convention, the details revealed by Guler suggest a much deeper level of integration into NATO planning than what Ankara had until today accepted in the Black Sea. The Minister of Defense revealed that planning discussions already took place in Ankara on May 15–16, 2025, where the participating countries agreed that Turkey would assume a leading role in the maritime dimension of the initiative and that all activities would be conducted within the legal framework defined by the convention. Turkey has already begun to implement the plan. According to the ministry, on August 25, 2025, a core nucleus of staff consisting exclusively of Turkish personnel was formed, which will constitute the core of the Maritime Component Command. Fourteen countries have since expressed their intention to contribute to the command structure, although participation in maritime operations will be restricted to the riparian states of the Black Sea, including Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. This revelation sheds new light on the efforts of Ankara to reinforce security in the Black Sea at a time when the war of Russia against Ukraine has transformed the strategic landscape of the region.
What the Turks argue
Although Turkish officials emphasize that the initiative does not constitute a NATO base and remains under national control, the plan has attracted significant attention due to its close coordination with NATO allies and its clear focus on Ukraine. Turkey historically resisted efforts to create permanent NATO military structures specifically dedicated to the Black Sea. During previous discussions on reinforcing maritime cooperation as a response to growing tensions with Russia, Ankara accepted information sharing and coordination through the NATO Maritime Command Headquarters, MARCOM, in Northwood, United Kingdom. However, it strongly opposed proposals for the creation of a permanent NATO command exclusively focused on the Black Sea, warning that such a move could destabilize the region, provoke Moscow, and undermine the delicate balance maintained under the Montreux regime. As a compromise solution, NATO created only a coordination nucleus in Northwood and not a dedicated headquarters for the Black Sea. This arrangement allowed the allies to exchange information, maritime surveillance data, and operational assessments without creating a permanent NATO military presence in the region. This approach reflected the long-standing preference of Turkey to prevent the transformation of the Black Sea into a field of direct military competition between Russia and NATO, while maintaining its role as the primary guardian of the regime of the Montreux Treaty. The new Maritime Component Command, connected to the Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine, constitutes therefore a remarkable shift. In contrast to previous arrangements, the initiative provides for a dedicated multinational command structure focused on the security of the Black Sea and on the post-war support of Ukraine.
The opposition reacts
Members of parliament from the opposition have raised the question of whether the new command structure could undermine the long-standing policy of Turkey to maintain a balance in its relations with Russia and the West. Critics argue that, despite the assurances of the government, the initiative carries the risk of integrating Turkey deeper into the Western security architecture, at a time when Ankara still maintains extensive political, economic, and energy ties with Moscow. Although the Minister of Defense, Guler, insisted that the initiative does not constitute a NATO project and will remain under Turkish command, questions still exist regarding the extent of NATO involvement. Once the headquarters becomes fully operational, it is widely considered probable that it will be integrated into the broader command and planning framework of NATO, given that the core supporters and participating countries are predominantly NATO allies. These concerns are reinforced by indications that core operational arrangements have already been discussed and specified with the participation of NATO. According to information, these include issues concerning Operational Command, OPCOM, Operational Control, OPCON, Area of Responsibility, and the Terms of Reference, ToR, governing the mission. In NATO terminology, the terms OPCOM and OPCON define the level of authority exercised over the participating forces, while the Terms of Reference define the mandate of the mission, responsibilities, the chain of command, and decision-making procedures. The apparent finalization of the planning of these critical command and control mechanisms suggests that the initiative has progressed far beyond the conceptual stage. Critics argue, therefore, that regardless of official denials, the venture looks increasingly like a structure supported by NATO, designed to reinforce Ukraine and to strengthen the position of the Alliance in the Black Sea region. Such a development is likely to attract the particular attention of Moscow, which historically presents Western-backed security initiatives in the Black Sea as attempts to restrict Russian influence and to expand the strategic footprint of NATO near its borders. Reports that French and British military officials have already visited the proposed site for the installation of the headquarters in Beykoz have further intensified speculation regarding the extent of Western involvement. Guler acknowledged the visits, but emphasized that the command will remain under Turkish authority and will be commanded by a Turkish general. He also added that the multinational structure of the headquarters has not yet received official approval and that the project remains in the planning phase. The documents also reveal that Ankara is parallelly promoting yet another important initiative connected to NATO, the Multinational Corps Turkey, MNC-TUR, which is expected to be established in Adana. Members of parliament from the opposition argue that, overall, the maritime command of the Black Sea and the multinational corps of the army signal a significant expansion of the military footprint of NATO in Turkey. Government officials, however, insist that both projects aim at reinforcing collective security while maintaining the sovereign control of Turkey over military activities on its territory. There is no doubt that the creation of a permanent multinational naval headquarters in Istanbul would constitute another source of friction in the increasingly complex relations of Turkey with Russia. While Ankara maintains political and economic ties with Moscow and continues to project itself as a mediator, the recently revealed plans show that Turkey is simultaneously preparing to play a starring military role in post-war security arrangements aimed at reinforcing Ukraine and restricting Russian influence in the Black Sea region.
The inevitable red line of Moscow
The shift of Ankara and the creation of the Maritime Component Command in the Bosporus show that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is attempting to step on two boats, yet this time the rope is in danger of breaking. The effort of Turkey to present the "Coalition of the Willing" as a purely national initiative convinces nobody, and certainly not the Kremlin. Moscow has proven repeatedly that it considers the Black Sea a vital space for its security, and any attempt at "NATO penetration" through the window constitutes a cause for war. Despite the diplomatic balances and the economic relations of the two countries, the transformation of Istanbul into an operational center against Russian interests deprives Ankara of the role of the honest mediator. The question now is not whether Russia will react, but the when and in what manner. The response of Moscow is expected to be harsh and multi-layered, either through suffocating economic and energy retaliation or with the demonstration of military power that will bring Ankara back to harsh reality. Turkey chose to play with fire and, with mathematical precision, it is a matter of time before it suffers the consequences of a geopolitical delusion that threatens to blow the region into the air.
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