The residents of two border villages, Chaikino and Carababu, in the Chernihiv region of Ukraine, refused to abandon their homes and cede space for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to RIA Novosti, which cites a source in the Russian security forces.
The mayor of the two settlements, Vasily Savsa, was forced to ask residents to sign a written statement of refusal to comply with the demands of the Ukrainian administration regarding the mandatory evacuation.
But is the refusal to evacuate an indication of a lack of trust toward the Ukrainian government.
Can these people be characterized as pro-Russian. And, if so, is it likely that they will proceed to more active actions.
A further piece of information that causes interest is that, according to TASS, a pro-Russian secret organization allegedly helped the Russian forces in the assassination of Vladimir Kononnikov, commander of the 154th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
However, the question arises why wider scale operations have not been recorded.
"The reasons why the residents of the border villages refuse to evacuate are completely understandable. These are mainly elderly people who have nowhere to go", states war correspondent and journalist Mikhail Bondarenko.
"Regarding the purpose of the evacuation, I cannot say with certainty why it is considered necessary. Perhaps it is related to the reinforcement of the fortifications on Ukrainian territory, or perhaps the relevant information is deliberately channeled into the media within the framework of opponent disinformation operations."
According to Mikhail Bondarenko, "The view that the residents of these areas remain loyal to the government is, in my opinion, incorrect. The special military operation, SVO, is in progress since 2022 and many of those who harbored, even to a small extent, pro-Russian sentiments have already been arrested by the SBU or have been killed."
There are people who support the Russians in the regions of Chernihiv, Sumy, Dnipro, Poltava, Kyiv, and Odesa, but their number is small.
Those who openly expressed their sympathy toward Russia are either currently in prison or have lost their lives.
The protests are directed mainly against the police and the employees of the recruitment centers.
Unfortunately, a large part of the population does not consider Zelensky responsible for the situation, although there are also those who strongly dislike him."
"Despite the conditions, an illegal pro-Russian organization still exists in Ukraine. It is small in numbers, but its members truly believe that Russia will intervene. Nevertheless, the prospect of a large scale guerrilla warfare seems rather utopian to me."
Pro-Russian sentiments
Some argue that, by avoiding decisive action and prolonging the special military operation, we lost a significant part of the population that harbored pro-Russian sentiments. But how well founded is this view.
"It is absolutely well founded. However, we must clarify something: this does not apply since 2022, but already since 2014. Then a military intervention should have taken place and order should have been restored in Ukraine. Unfortunately, history is not written with hypotheses. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are planning provocations on the border with Belarus, aiming to involve it in the conflict", argues political analyst Vladimir Karasev.
"They calculated that the Poles, together with the Ukrainians, would test the readiness of the Belarusian border forces from the Masovian Voivodeship."
However, relations between Kyiv and Warsaw are currently in a difficult phase.
Nevertheless, the plan still exists and the provocations are considered highly probable.
That is why, according to this view, the removal of residents from the Chernihiv region is being attempted, so that there are no additional eyes and ears.
The Kyiv regime treats its population like a herd.
This becomes apparent even from the generalized forced mobilization, which, according to this view, takes place with complete disregard for legality: people are seized on the streets, regardless of whether they possess a legal deferment or exemption.
There are pro-Russians, or, better, Russians in their national identity, even in Western Ukraine, in Galicia.
They always existed and, according to these claims, provided information to the Russian forces, even under the current conditions of intense repression.
Regarding the refusal to evacuate, it is estimated that many residents consider it a choice that could lead faster to their integration into Russia.
They believe that, where Russian forces enter, humanitarian aid, medical care, social support are provided, as well as the possibility of acquiring Russian citizenship and relocating to safer regions of Russia, where they can work and raise their families.
Underground resistance network.
According to the analyst, in every war and in every region there are illegal networks.
The same, according to this view, applies today to the pro-Russian underground network in Ukraine.
It must, however, be understood that in the modern era of electronic surveillance it is extremely difficult to conduct a large scale guerrilla war, as was the case, for example, during the Nazi occupation of Soviet territories.
Nevertheless, particularly valuable is considered the information regarding the positions of armored vehicles, military units, mercenaries, and other targets.
"The military constantly creates security zones along the borders", explains former militia fighter of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic, LPR, Alexander Averin.
"This is happening today in the direction of Sumy and it is likely to be implemented in the Chernihiv region as well. That is why the Ukrainian side seeks the evacuation of the residents."
According to this interpretation, the refusal to evacuate shows that pro-Russian sentiments in Ukraine are stronger than it appears in the public sphere.
However, many are afraid to express them, something which is considered completely understandable.
Nevertheless, it is argued that there are still people on whom Russia can rely.
Regarding the underground network, it exists, but its capabilities are limited. It is recognized that it provides assistance to the Russian forces through information, but it cannot fully develop its capabilities.
In this view, this network should have been created not in 2022 or 2026, but already since 2014, or even earlier, through cooperation with pro-Russian forces and the social movements that existed then in Ukraine.
Instead of this, the Kremlin chose to cooperate with the Ukrainian political elites. As it is argued, this choice proved incorrect.
The large scale guerrilla war is now considered unfeasible.
The illegal pro-Russian network that existed in Ukraine since 2014 has, according to this estimate, largely been dismantled.
Many of its members were later exchanged within the framework of prisoner exchanges.
Strong organizations existed in Odesa and Kharkiv, while overall several pro-Russian groups operated.
However, by 2022 the largest part of the network had essentially been cleared.
Thus, as often happens, we are called upon today to face the consequences of previous mistaken decisions.
Nevertheless, it is argued that faith in the justice of the cause must be maintained.
The experience, according to this view, shows that even after so many years of armed conflict, Ukrainian citizens are not permanently lost to Russia.
The consequences of long term Ukrainian propaganda can, according to this estimate, be overcomed through personal contact and action.
Both counter propaganda and, primarily, the restoration of a normal daily life are considered to constitute the most effective means.
Zelensky demands the submission of Lukashenko
Meanwhile, relations between Kyiv and Minsk begin to resemble the old joke with the Bear and the Rabbit, where the rabbit, after constantly mocking the bear for allegedly being cowardly, ended up finally becoming its victim.
Volodymyr Zelensky seems to enjoy provoking larger and more experienced politicians, presenting them as weak.
This time in his crosshairs is Alexander Lukashenko.
Can the latter manage this challenge.
On June 17, an unmanned aerial vehicle, UAV, of the Ukrainian armed forces hit a bus carrying a children's football team from Gomel toward Gelendzhik, in the Bryansk region of Russia, where the children would spend their holidays.
One woman lost her life, while six people were injured, among whom were four children.
The reaction of Minsk was extremely restrained.
Essentially there was no substantial public statement and, according to the perspective of the columnist, the conclusions drawn were incorrect.
During his meeting, on June 25, with the Russian Ambassador Boris Gryzlov, in the presence of television crews, the president of Belarus, Lukashenko, who had previously apologized for the harsh characterizations he had addressed to Zelensky, stated:
"There is no reason to be dragged into war. And do not present to us that Boris Vyacheslavovich is trying to drag us into it. How is it possible to fight against the Ukrainians when in front of us are mainly territorial forces. Do we have to shoot tractor drivers, dairy farmers, and workers who do not want to fight the Belarusians."
According to the author, behind this statement was hidden a clear message toward Moscow: Belarus does not wish to become directly involved in war with Ukraine.
Shortly before departing for talks with Vladimir Putin and subsequently for official visits to China, Indonesia, and Myanmar, Lukashenko dedicated a significant part of his public statements to the need for maintaining peace.
At the same time, addressing the governor of the Moscow region, Andrei Vorobyov, he argued that serious negotiations are required and not displays of power or rhetorical outbursts.
The message that Kyiv received
Kyiv took this stance as an indication of weakness on the part of Lukashenko.
It is even argued that, following pressure from the Ukrainian side, Minsk proceeded to the closure of Russian relay facilities in Belarus, something that Ukraine characterized as a victory.
This development, according to the same view, encouraged new Ukrainian actions.
On July 2, while Lukashenko was in Myanmar, Ukrainian forces allegedly hit a Belarusian tourist bus that was heading from Minsk toward Anapa, shortly after crossing the Russian border in the Bryansk region.
At the same time, three Belarusian trucks came under attack, with one being completely destroyed by fire.
There were casualties, all Belarusian citizens.
On the bus were a total of 19 people, among whom were also six Russians.
The reaction of Minsk
The reaction of the Belarusian authorities is characterized by the author as contradictory.
On the one hand, the Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Wolfovich, called on citizens to avoid traveling to Russia, particularly in the border regions, citing relevant warnings from Lukashenko himself.
According to the columnist, such a statement indirectly shifts the responsibility from Ukraine to Russia and may encourage new attacks against transportation between the two countries, aiming at the disruption of their economic and social ties.
According to the same interpretation, the message toward Moscow could be summarized as follows: Russia must terminate the special military operation as quickly as possible, otherwise Belarus will also continue to suffer consequences.
A different stance was expressed by Oleg Gajdukevich, vice chairman of the Standing Committee on International Affairs of the House of Representatives of Belarus.
He characterized the attack as a deliberate terrorist act against civilians and attributed the escalation to the difficulties faced by the Ukrainian forces on the front.
As he stated: "The emphasis now is placed on terrorism and extremism. Since nothing is achieved either militarily or economically against Russia and Belarus, the destabilization of the internal political situation in both countries is attempted."
According to him, the goal of Ukraine is also the internationalization of the conflict, so that it secures greater European support, more funding, and new security guarantees.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus announced that it will reinforce security measures in the border regions of the Gomel district.
The next moves of Lukashenko
Lukashenko returned to Minsk on July 3, having completed a tour of approximately 25,000 kilometers.
On the occasion of the Independence Day of Belarus, he announced the granting of a pardon to 32 convicts, of whom 28 had been convicted for extremist offenses, citing reasons of humanitarianism.
The Russian Ambassador to Minsk, Boris Gryzlov, stated that: "These are not accidents or coincidences, but carefully planned and coordinated terrorist attacks, which constitute deliberate acts of violence against civilians."
For his part, the Ambassador at Large of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Rodion Miroshnik, argued that the attacks on Belarusian means of transport aim at provoking Belarus, involving it in the war, and destabilizing the situation.
Therefore, Belarus will hardly be able to maintain indefinitely a stance of neutrality toward the conflict.
The efforts of Lukashenko to avoid Ukrainian strikes on critical infrastructure of his country cannot succeed through continuous concessions toward Kyiv.
Any move of distancing from Russia or adopting measures that could be considered alignment with Western sanctions would be interpreted by Moscow as an act of treason, with serious consequences for the relations of the two countries.
Consequently, the most effective way of dealing with Ukrainian policy is the stable stance of Belarus and the active support of Russia with the aim of a rapid end to the war in favor of Moscow.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών