The Patriot missiles have run out for us and this is not only an undeniable fact, but also indicative of the military absurdity in Europe that refuses to end.
The sky over Kyiv is no longer illuminated by the explosions of interceptions, but by the deadly impact of a global military shortage.
The failure to down even one of the 23 ballistic missiles that struck the Ukrainian capital transcends the country's borders and exposes a brutal, international reality: Patriot system stocks have run dry worldwide.
The West finds itself trapped in an economic and industrial deadlock, where the defense industry is unable to follow the pace of a war of attrition, and a highly expensive missile costing 114 times more than its target is called upon to confront cheap, mass drones.
Ukraine has run out of missiles for the Patriot air defense systems
Of the 23 ballistic missiles that struck Kyiv, none was downed.
There is a severe shortage of missiles for the PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptor systems.
The problem, however, is that this headache does not concern only Ukraine.
The global shortage of interceptor missiles has been accumulating for a long time, it is simply now reflected in the most intense way in the night sky of Kyiv.
The immediate culprit is the war waged by Israel and the US against Iran.
During the active phase of this conflict, the combined Patriot stocks of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Israel decreased by approximately 86%, according to analysts at Defence Ukraine.
(PAC-3)
In the first 16 days of operations alone, the American forces launched more than 400 interceptor missiles.
According to other estimates, the Gulf states spent a total of over 1,100 missiles within a few months, a number corresponding to almost one third of global stocks.
If we look closer, though, it turns out that not even Iran constitutes the primary cause.
Analysts at the Foreign Policy Research Institute point out that by July 2025, before the escalation with Iran even started, the stocks of American Patriots had already been reduced to 25% of the minimum required safety level of the Pentagon, due to the continuous shipments to Ukraine.
The war with Iran simply brought to the surface a shortage that the support to Kyiv had already created.
The numbers in this confrontation are relentless for the defending side
A PAC-3 MSE interceptor missile costs approximately 4 million dollars and is frequently used for downing a drone valued at just 35,000 dollars.
With this ratio of 114 to 1, the sustainability of the defense is ultimately transformed into a matter of pure economics.
Lockheed Martin delivered approximately 620 PAC-3 interceptor missiles in 2025, meaning fewer than two missiles per day for the entire planet, at a time when approximately 18 countries use this specific system and half of the annual production is directed to US allies.
In January 2026, the company signed a seven-year agreement with the Pentagon, committing to increase production to 2,000 missiles annually by 2030. RTX, the American manufacturer of the older PAC-2 type, is also increasing its production: from approximately 240 missiles annually in 2024, it plans to reach 420 by the end of 2027.
However, none of this offers immediate relief to a country that needs the missiles here and now.
No matter how much political will exists, production cannot be increased with a simple move
The Foreign Policy Research Institute calls this problem the "iron triangle" of the defense-industrial base.
It functions differently from the classic business triangle "fast, good, cheap", where you can sacrifice one for the sake of the other.
In the war industry, the cost, the time, and the production capacity are limited by physical boundaries themselves: specialized subcontractors, testing fields, time-consuming certification cycles, and other bureaucratic procedures.
The influx of more money is not enough to accelerate this closed supply chain.
Zelensky poses the issue from another perspective: Ukraine did not manage to replenish the missiles that the US and its allies spent in the Middle East earlier this year.
The material and the launcher systems exist, he points out, but what is missing is the missiles that accompany them.
According to him, the only immediate solution is the willingness of partner countries to share their own strategic stocks.
In this context, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine dispatched letters to approximately 40 partner countries last week, requesting the urgent delivery of interceptor missiles from their existing stocks, in exchange for priority in future deliveries.
At the same time, Kyiv searches for alternative solutions
It finds itself in negotiations with Germany for the development of a system that could substitute for the Patriot.
The project constitutes a joint effort of the Ukrainian Fire Point and the German Diehl Defence, under the provisional name Freya.
In addition, Ukraine seeks to obtain permission from the US for the domestic production of Patriot interceptor missiles on its territory.
However, analysts agree unanimously that both these endeavors require years to be implemented, a fact meaning they cannot cover the current, critical gap in the air defense of the country.
The shortage of interceptor missiles is not going to be resolved through declarations at summits or new letters to the leaders of the allies.
The industry is naturally not in a position to achieve a substantial increase in production before the end of the decade, while the willingness of partners to part with their own security stocks remains exceptionally doubtful.
Until this stance changes, every new mass missile attack will repeat the catastrophic scenario of July 6, differentiating simply the scale of casualties and damages.
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