Despite dozens, if not hundreds of reports in the American, Russian, and international press, countless statements by officials, and official positions from the White House and the Kremlin, the mystery regarding the message conveyed by CIA chief John Ratcliffe to Moscow continues to linger, while fueling speculation surrounding this secret and sudden visit...
Speculation maintained by both the Kremlin and the White House through their official positions...
The Kremlin maintained that Ratcliffe met with the heads of the Russian intelligence services, that he was not scheduled to see Russian President Putin, and described it as positive that contacts exist between intelligence agencies even at this difficult moment in bilateral relations...
However, it made no reference to what was discussed...
More explicit was the President of the US, Donald Trump, who, although emphasizing that it was a routine visit, stated that it concerned neither NATO nor Iran nor a Russian attack against Great Britain, and expressed hope that something good might come out of this visit...
Yet what Trump claims can hardly be taken seriously... as has been proven in many instances.
Russian analysts, however, argue that Ratcliffe's message did indeed concern Ukraine and present 3 main versions regarding its content...
The 3 main versions
Despite official statements and reports citing reliable sources, the mystery surrounding Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow remains.
Trump claimed that Ratcliffe's visit was not linked to any potential intention by Vladimir Putin to test the resolve of NATO, to sanctions against Iran, or to a possible Russian attack against Great Britain.
He added, however, that Washington is working intensively toward ending the conflict in Ukraine.
From this, it can be deduced that the visit was related in some way to Kyiv, where, incidentally, the former representative of Donald Trump, Keith Kellogg, had traveled a day earlier.
Consequently, the main versions regarding what Ratcliffe's visit might have concerned are the following:
1) A warning of a hardening of the US stance if Russia continues to refuse to modify the current terms it sets for ending the war in Ukraine.
2) American «hawks» revised their stance toward Russia and are now oriented toward dialogue with it aimed at a potential agreement. For example, regarding the cessation of intelligence sharing with Kyiv as a means of pressure on Ukrainian authorities to accept the «Anchorage terms» for a peace settlement, or regarding broader issues.
3) The visit is linked to rising tension in relations between Russia and Europe and to the threat of a direct confrontation between them or some other form of mutual escalation.
The Western narrative
What has become clearer, then, regarding John Ratcliffe's mission twenty-four hours later?
As already noted, the most widespread version in Western media is that John Ratcliffe went to Moscow to deter the Kremlin from an attack against European countries.
However, to a large extent, this version is based on the «method of analogies»: parallels are drawn with the visit to Moscow, a few months prior to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, by then CIA director William Burns, who, having received intelligence on its preparation, attempted to convince the Russian side not to proceed with it.
Recent reports in Western media are also recalled, according to which American intelligence agencies had warned of potential Russian actions against European countries aimed at «testing NATO unity».
As the former Deputy Director of the US National Intelligence Agency Beth Sanner described the likely meaning of John Ratcliffe's trip: «Washington knows what Moscow intends to do and warns it not to do it».
Hypotheses and scenarios
However, we reiterate that all these represent hypotheses.
There is no specific information regarding the issues discussed during John Ratcliffe's meetings in Moscow.
If, however, we assume that the head of the CIA indeed went to Russia to deter Moscow from an attack against Europe, then it is worth remembering what happened after William Burns' visit in November 2021.
Today, many write that his mission yielded no result, as Russia ultimately invaded Ukraine, ignoring the warnings of the head of the American intelligence agency.
However, between William Burns' visit and February 24, 2022, another event occurred, which now tends to be forgotten.
These were Russia's proposals to the US and NATO for a new security architecture in Europe, which would include guarantees that Ukraine would not join the Alliance.
In other words, after receiving Washington's warnings regarding a war in Ukraine, Moscow responded by presenting the Americans with its own terms under which it was prepared to abandon invasion plans.
The terms
By today's standards, these terms do not appear particularly harsh.
In recent years, many have now realized that in Washington and certain other key NATO countries there is no desire for Ukraine's accession to the Alliance (Donald Trump, in fact, mentions this constantly), so that there is no risk of war with Russia.
Yet back then, in late 2021 and early 2022, the US rejected Moscow's terms.
Subsequently, the Russian invasion began.
The opportunity
Why was Washington unwilling to accept the Russian proposals, even though it had no intention of admitting Kyiv into NATO?
The primary reason was that the then US leadership did not view a Russian invasion of Ukraine as a problem for the prevention of which certain concessions should be made to Moscow, but as an opportunity.
An opportunity to embroil Russia in a war, sever its ties with Europe, and potentially inflict upon Russia, via Ukraine, a «strategic defeat» or drive it toward collapse under the weight of the problems created by a war.
Major problem for the US
However, if today there is indeed a question of a possible direct confrontation between Russia and NATO countries, then for Washington the situation is fundamentally different.
Because such an event would constitute a problem for the US, and a very major one indeed.
Such a conflict would either destroy the Alliance, if the Americans did not come to its aid and the Europeans did not proceed with a substantial retaliatory strike, or, if the US came to its aid and the Europeans responded militarily, it would bring the world to the brink of nuclear war.
Therefore, if in response to John Ratcliffe's warning (provided, of course, that such a warning indeed took place) Moscow sets forth, just as in 2021, its own counter-proposed terms, then the White House's stance toward them may this time be entirely different from what it was five years ago.
Naryshkin (SVR): I met with Ratcliffe, nothing unusual, part of the job...
The Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia (SVR), Sergey Naryshkin, confirmed that he met with the head of the US CIA, John Ratcliffe, during the latter's stay in Moscow.
«The meeting took place; there is nothing unusual about it», Sergey Naryshkin told journalists.
«In the practical functioning of special services, meetings between their chiefs, whether in person or online, are part of our job.
I must tell you that almost every week I meet with the head of some special service or intelligence agency from various continents of the world.
Therefore, the meeting that took place with John Ratcliffe also falls within a purely professional framework».
The Director of the SVR also stated that he discussed with John Ratcliffe matters that fall under the competence of intelligence services.
Wall Street Journal: Ratcliffe warned that an attack against NATO is unacceptable
The objective of the unexpected visit of the Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), John Ratcliffe, to Moscow was to warn Russia that an attack against NATO countries is unacceptable, reports the Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with details of the visit.
According to the report, the visit took place following recent assessments by American intelligence agencies, according to which the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, may in the coming years attempt to «test the resolve of NATO» through a limited attack against an Alliance country.
American officials are concerned about various potential scenarios of action by Moscow, from a cyberattack to a small-scale ground invasion, with the most probable target being one of the Baltic states.
As the WSJ writes, Moscow's calculations may also be influenced by the shortage of certain critical munitions in the West.
Stockpiles of Western countries have diminished due to deliveries to Ukraine and the consumption of ammunition during the war of Israel and the US with Iran.
Politico: Do not attack the Baltic, do not support Iran
CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow in order to discuss a potential «escalation» by Russia in its relations with US allies in NATO, as well as a reduction in Russian support for Iran, points out Politico for its part, citing sources.
According to the report's sources, John Ratcliffe reportedly «warned Russian officials in Moscow not to escalate the conflict with US allies in NATO, especially with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania».
Furthermore, according to the report, the head of the CIA discussed with the Russian side the possibility of curtailing «military and economic support for Iran».
«The purpose of his meeting was primarily to warn Russia not to proceed with any escalatory actions against the Baltic states», stated a source familiar with the matter.
Trump: Routine visit
Reacting to the various scenarios regarding the CIA chief's visit to Moscow, Donald Trump dismissed that its objective was to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin not to test the resolve of NATO or not to attack Britain or regarding US sanctions against Iran, characterizing the trip as «routine».
«It was kind of a standard, routine trip.
I am sorry to disappoint people», said the American President, who emphasized, however, that the purpose of the visit was to help end the war in Ukraine.
Donald Trump stated: «We want the war with Ukraine to end», while expressing hope that something good might come out of this meeting.
In fact, after Moscow, Ratcliffe traveled to the White House where he briefed Trump on the results of his visit.
Accompanying him were Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine.
What the Kremlin officially says
For his part, the Press Secretary of the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov, stated that John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow is linked to contacts between intelligence services, and that Vladimir Putin did not hold a meeting with the Director of the CIA.
No other details were provided, although Peskov in his official briefing to journalists underlined that it is positive that even in this difficult phase of bilateral US-Russia relations, contact exists between the intelligence services of the two countries.
Gitanas Nausėda (President of Lithuania): Objective is the reduction of geopolitical tension in the Baltic
The President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda, stated what the objective of the visit of the head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), John Ratcliffe, to Moscow could be.
In his view, the visit may be linked to «reducing geopolitical tension in our region».
Nausėda noted that Lithuania had been informed in advance about John Ratcliffe's visit and underscored that details of the meeting are the subject of discussions between the parties that took part in it.
«Information regarding this meeting, its objectives, and its content will be provided to us directly, that is, most likely, already next week», said the President of Lithuania, stressing that the meeting that took place «creates positive expectations».
«We were informed by our partners that information regarding this meeting, its objectives, and its content will be provided to us directly, that is, in all probability, already next week...
I can only assume that this meeting is indeed aimed at reducing geopolitical tension in our region, and that makes me view things positively», stated Gitanas Nausėda.
Deciphering the mystery
In an effort to separate facts from hypotheses, Russian media report that the following picture emerges: there are ten things that are undisputed and many others that may or may not apply.
Overall, it is estimated that John Ratcliffe's mission failed, as he appears to have arrived with threats and promises that no longer affect Moscow.
To the wave of speculation surrounding the entirely unexpected and, by all indications, impressive and decisively important visit of US CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow, Dmitry Peskov responded in an interview with The Washington Post.
John Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow on a heavy transport aircraft C-17 Globemaster III, something quite unusual.
Peskov acknowledged that, first, the visit indeed took place and, second, that it concerned «contacts between intelligence services».
Dmitry Peskov essentially stated the obvious, what everyone already knew: since the head of American secret services came, it goes without saying that he would meet his counterparts and not, for instance, the Minister of Culture.
Meeting with Putin (?)
However, as Russian analysts maintain, there were also certain significant hints. For example: «No contacts with Putin had been scheduled».
The Kremlin spokesperson used the past tense.
«Had not been scheduled» does not necessarily mean they did not occur.
As Russian media report, President Putin, as a former security services officer, would hardly miss such an opportunity, to meet and talk with the head of the CIA and one of Donald Trump's closest associates.
This is a valid argument that nonetheless does not prove that the meeting actually occurred...
Many indirect indications, although officially such a development has not been confirmed and has indeed been denied, suggest that Vladimir Putin may ultimately have met with John Ratcliffe.
Presidential pool journalist Alexander Yunashev wrote immediately afterward on social media: «For this Tuesday, the President had scheduled a very large-scale event, hundreds of people were preparing for it. But a few days ago it was rescheduled. Given that my sources confirmed that the head of the CIA indeed arrived in Moscow, we can now speculate for the sake of which meeting the presidential schedule was altered».
The semiotics
Furthermore, Russian analysts argue that the above hypothesis is reinforced by yet another element: above the dome of the Senate Palace in the Kremlin, the presidential standard was flying. This means that Vladimir Putin was present and taking part in some important activity.
The brief commentary by Dmitry Peskov, which appeared shortly afterward stating that no meeting took place between Vladimir Putin and John Ratcliffe, but that the President «is briefed immediately on all of this», is treated by Russian media with heavy sarcasm.
«It is obvious that it does not befit a "tsar" to meet with a spy, even if he is high-ranking and American», they pointedly note...
What can be stated with certainty
Based on the information that has been made public, an attempt is made to draw further conclusions.
First, some highly classified issue or series of issues was discussed. These were matters that could not be left to standard communication channels, through which the visit was hastily arranged in any case.
Second, they may not have been purely political issues, but specific military-technical matters in which intelligence agency representatives possess greater expertise.
Third, this could constitute cover for securing answers to fundamental questions, upon the clarification of which depends the policy of both the US, which reportedly took the initiative for John Ratcliffe's visit, and Russia across critical areas.
Otherwise, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff along with Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, could have traveled to Moscow again without attracting particular attention.
Fourth, the Russian leadership had not scheduled meetings at the Kremlin this week with representatives of the American administration, but activities on the President's schedule for August 25 were to be non-public: that is, there were no plans, yet suddenly «non-public» obligations appeared.
American initiative
From this emerges the fifth conclusion: the Kremlin spokesperson essentially admitted that John Ratcliffe's visit was an American initiative, and an urgent one at that.
The visit appears to have been organized in just a few days.
The fact that on August 25 Dmitry Peskov persistently deflected journalists' questions regarding the arrival of the CIA chief, saying «No, I do not have such information», constitutes, according to Russian analysts, the sixth element demonstrating the emergency and completely unscheduled nature of the visit.
This allows the seventh conclusion to be drawn: the emergency arrival of the CIA director is linked to some exceptionally important developments that are either already underway or about to take place soon.
Eighth, with considerable probability, the talks concerned Ukraine or Iran, or both.
Particularly Ukraine, as a shift in Russian policy toward it has occurred.
On The Glenn Beck Program, Donald Trump characterized the visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow as a «routine trip», but expressed hope that «something will come out of it».
Ninth, from the manner in which Dmitry Peskov answered questions, it is estimated that in the future more details, mixed with disinformation, regarding the secret negotiations in Moscow will become known from the US, where leaks are more frequent due to competition between different political groups.
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