Actual gold purchases by China appear to be roughly double those recorded through official channels, according to the latest estimate by Goldman Sachs. This discrepancy, which was initially highlighted by ZeroHedge, carries particular significance as it suggests Beijing is bolstering its gold reserves at a faster pace than indicated by available public data. Goldman Sachs estimates that China bought 35 tons of gold in July, making it the largest known buyer during that specific month. This estimate is approximately twice the amount resulting from China's official announcements regarding precious metals acquisitions. 
At the same time, China accounted for the majority of the total 44 tons of gold purchased by central banks in July, according to financial market assessments. This development gains even greater weight when compared to the levels seen in previous years. Prior to 2022, central banks bought an average of just 17 tons of gold per month. On a quarterly adjusted basis, purchases have now accelerated to 91 tons monthly, reaching a level more than five times the previous average rate of institutional buying.
The "hidden" gold of central banks
The difference between official figures and Goldman Sachs estimates highlights a long-standing issue in the gold market: central banks do not always disclose their purchases immediately or in full. Goldman Sachs tracks the quantities of gold traded through the London over-the-counter market to domestic vaults or third-party custodians. In this way, the investment bank can identify transactions that may not yet be reflected in official sovereign reserves data. Indeed, the possibility of even more unreported purchases cannot be ruled out. Gold held on behalf of foreign central banks at the Bank of England increased by 63 tons in July. A portion of this amount may have been transferred from the New York Federal Reserve; however, the increase in the UK was larger than the corresponding decrease in New York. Goldman Sachs consequently concluded that "additional recent central bank purchases are not captured in the July forecast," signaling understated global physical demand.
Gold targeting $4,900
These metrics show that official data on bullion reserves offer only a partial picture of true central bank demand, given that China's actual purchases are already estimated to be roughly double the publicly reported level. Goldman Sachs continues to forecast that the gold price will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while emphasizing that upside risks remain elevated. If China and other central banks are indeed buying significantly more gold than what is officially recorded, then the underlying physical market demand supporting spot prices may be substantially stronger than public figures indicate.
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