Christine Lagarde’s future in doubt as early ECB exit looms without Davos role secured

Things are becoming increasingly difficult for Christine Lagarde, who is being pushed toward an early exit from the ECB—enabling the European elite to appoint a successor before a potential Marine Le Pen victory in the French elections—while simultaneously failing to "lock in" her desired position at Davos.

According to information from the Financial Times, Lagarde, who is expected to depart prematurely from her role as ECB President ahead of the French elections, was widely considered the frontrunner to assume the permanent presidency of the World Economic Forum (WEF), whose founder Klaus Schwab resigned abruptly in 2025. She currently serves as a member of its board of directors. However, within the Swiss organization, Lagarde has begun to be viewed as "Klaus's candidate," a label that has started working against her.

The day after at the WEF

The succession debate is linked to a broader dispute over the future direction of the Davos forum, including the extent to which it leans toward the US. Larry Fink, head of BlackRock, who took over as interim co-chair alongside Roche vice-chairman André Hoffmann last August, emerged from the January annual meeting—the first without Schwab—with enhanced influence, according to several individuals.

Both Hoffmann and Fink are expected to soon remove the "interim" tag from their titles, one source added. This year's meeting in Davos was internally deemed a success, with the presence of US President Donald Trump underscoring the WEF's continued strength as a gathering place for powerful actors. However, Lagarde caused a stir when she departed before US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick finished his speech. Her exit was interpreted by some attendees as awkward, given the high-profile American presence.

The Epstein case

Revelations regarding ties between WEF President Børge Brende and Jeffrey Epstein have also disrupted succession planning, according to three individuals, sparking discussions about a broader leadership restructuring. The forum announced an investigation into Brende this month. For decades, the WEF was seen as a stable organization under its founder's guidance, but in recent years, it has faced successive governance crises that have shaken its cohesive structure. The timeline for any presidential transition has long remained uncertain. Although Lagarde plans to leave the ECB before her eight-year term ends in October 2027, it is unclear exactly when this will occur.

The balance of power at the WEF has shifted

As is known, Lagarde met with Schwab in Frankfurt in April 2025 to discuss shortening her ECB term to facilitate her move to the WEF. Days after the meeting, Schwab was forced to resign following a whistleblower letter to the board alleging serious misconduct. An investigation concluded in August and found no material wrongdoing by the Davos founder.

However, the episode triggered a broader reshuffle and fundamentally altered the succession dynamics. Specifically, following Schwab's departure, some within and around the organization became wary of any perception of an overly close connection to the previous leadership. Given the desire for a clear message of rupture, appointing someone so closely linked to Schwab may prove difficult. "There is a desire to show that the board is handling the process correctly, with the help of headhunters, and not just elevating someone's choice without an institutional process," a person with knowledge of the matter told the FT. "Christine should not be considered a foregone conclusion," a second person stated, though another described her as an "excellent candidate" who still holds strong chances.

Two senior WEF officials with knowledge of the discussions noted that the US political and business delegation at this year’s Davos conveyed that Lagarde is not the US preferred choice. Fink's increasingly visible involvement with American political actors this year has led some to believe he will seek to influence the final selection to shift the organization’s orientation. He has also privately discussed the possibility of moving the flagship summit away from its Alpine location in Davos.

The investigation into Brende’s ties to Epstein has intensified anxiety within the organization, according to three sources, reinforcing the view among some trustees that further turbulence should be avoided. Documents published this year by the US Department of Justice revealed that the former Norwegian Foreign Minister had several business dinners and message exchanges with Epstein. "While the investigation into Brende is expected to last only a few weeks, there is a sense that appointing new presidents within the year is unwise," said a person familiar with the board's thinking.

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