A serious warning regarding NATO's operational readiness in the event of a large-scale war in Europe has been brought to light by a new study backed by the Alliance, exposing a critical vulnerability behind European rearmament.
Specifically, despite massive investments in fighter jets, such as the American F-35, battle tanks, missiles, and drones, European countries may lack sufficient fuel reserves to sustain a prolonged military conflict with Russia. This is because Europe's energy transition away from fossil fuels and the contraction of its refining capacity are creating dangerous gaps.
Nightmare findings from the NATO study
The study found that if a major conflict breaks out within the next decade involving the European members of the Alliance, reinforced by forces from North America, the fuel demands of NATO aircraft could outstrip available supplies.
"The warnings come at a time when Russian hybrid warfare and sabotage campaigns in recent months have reignited concerns over the possibility of a direct conflict with Moscow," a relevant report by Politico notes.
However, at a time when Alliance nations are spending defense budgets worth billions of euros to purchase aircraft, battle tanks, missiles, and drones, researchers warn that fuel supply constraints could become the factor that impedes any future resistance.
"From a military readiness perspective, access to fuel is of paramount importance," a senior NATO military official stated. "NATO needs reliable energy supplies to deter threats and defend itself. And sometimes those collective defense needs mean the military must take priority."
The energy transition backfires
NATO researchers partly attributed the fuel shortages to the decarbonization policies of EU nations and allied states, which have created financial incentives for renewable energy sources and accelerated the closure of oil refineries upon which the military relies to build reserves. This has left NATO Europe facing shortages in diesel and aviation fuel, according to the researchers.
"The report has circulated at a fairly high level within NATO and across the entire Alliance," stated a spokesperson for the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, which conducted the research. "The urgent nature of this report and the simulation models it includes are undoubtedly due to the current geopolitical environment."
The shuttered refineries
According to data from FuelsEurope and the European Commission, approximately one quarter of the European continent's oil refineries have shut down since 2009. This has resulted in the loss of millions of barrels in daily production capacity and has left Europe with roughly 70 operational refineries capable of supplying the domestic market with aviation fuel.
How NATO can increase its refining capacity is "a good question," to which there is not yet an answer, a senior European security official stated.
The same official added that this "is no reason to abandon the green transition."
The new study also coincides with a Brussels-led initiative to bolster EU refining capacity, which has declined by 10% over the past 20 years, with repercussions for defense as well, as European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jørgensen publicly warned last month.
The scenario for activating Article 5
"The system reaches its limits in the scenario we have modeled, which involves a full-scale conflict in NATO Europe, triggered by the activation of Article 5, with a major deployment of forces from North America," the researchers report.
"In the plausible worst-case scenario, no level of restrictions on civilian consumption can balance the system from the mid-2030s onward without intervention."
Article 5 constitutes NATO's collective defense clause and stipulates that an attack against one member state is considered an attack against all.
However, according to the study, even the requisitioning of the entirety of available aviation fuel quantities earmarked for civil aviation over the next decade would not suffice to cover demand. "From 2035, the full requisitioning of civilian supplies still leaves an unmet demand of 4.7 million metric tons of aviation fuel," the researchers state.
"This deficit could reach as much as 50 million metric tons by 2050."
Changes are urgently needed
Researchers, however, argue that the crisis can be averted and that changes are urgently required from NATO.
Their recommendations include maintaining refining capacity by allied governments, expanding strategic fuel reserves, accelerating the production of alternative aviation fuels, diversifying imports, and maximizing fuel consumption efficiency by armed forces.
"The positive element of the energy transition from the perspective of defense fuel supply security is that the development of alternative fuels in Europe offers what we call additional market supply," stated the spokesperson for the Centre, who backed EU efforts to become energy self-sufficient.
"It therefore represents a new form of market supply that can be produced within Europe and reduce dependence on international crude oil supply chains."
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed similar concerns on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, admitting that the Alliance is worried about the lack of refineries in Europe in the event of war with Russia.
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