The new declaration by Iran that it now possesses a larger missile arsenal than it had during the 12-day war with Israel has caused shock in the West. The accuracy of this statement remains debatable, yet experts monitoring Tehran's missile program estimate that the country has increased its production with the aim of being able to overwhelm Israeli aerial and missile defenses, which had been damaged during the conflict. All this is happening amidst increasing concerns about a new war over Iran's nuclear program.
"Our missile power today far exceeds that of the 12-day war," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently declared. "The enemy in the recent 12-day war failed to achieve all its goals and was defeated." Iran's Minister of Defense, Brig. Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh, stated that "the production of defensive weapon systems has improved both quantitatively and qualitatively compared to before the 12-day war imposed by Israel in June."
Production at full throttle
According to The New York Times, Iranian officials informed Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, that "missile facilities are operating 24 hours a day." Vaez added that, in the event of a new war, Tehran intends to launch "2,000 missiles simultaneously to overwhelm Israeli defenses, and not 500 in 12 days" as happened in June.
"Israel considers the mission incomplete and sees no reason not to continue the conflict, so Iran is bolstering its readiness for the next round." Vaez added that, although "it is not clear how many missiles can be launched in one large attack, there is no doubt that Tehran may try to overwhelm either the interception systems or critical infrastructure with a larger number of missiles simultaneously."
Furthermore, Iran is applying the lessons learned from the 12-day war to increase the effectiveness of its missiles, according to Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). "The Islamic Republic learned how to launch fewer missiles and maximize their effectiveness, based on the targets, location, and sequence of launch," he explained. "There is no doubt that the regime wants to improve the lethality of its missile capabilities."
Which missiles worry the West
During the conflict, Iran used the medium-range missile Fattah-1 MRBM, while authorities also promoted the Haj Qassem and Kheibar Shekan, which feature high speed and maneuverability to reduce their vulnerability to Israeli defenses. The increased production of faster and more resilient missiles poses a major problem for Israel, as it strengthens the missiles' ability to penetrate defensive lines. Improving the effectiveness of ballistic attacks is a top priority for Tehran, just as protection from future attacks is for Israel.
During the 12-day war, Iran launched 631 missiles, of which 500 reached Israel, according to the claim of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Of these, 243 hit open areas, 36 hit inhabited areas, and 221 were intercepted, with a success rate of 86%, as reported by the Israeli analysis. The data has not been independently verified.
Israel tested
The launch of so many missiles significantly strained Israel's advanced integrated aerial and missile defense system (IADS), while the US also consumed many advanced interceptors. The Foreign Policy Research Institute concluded that "American and Israeli defenses were exhausted, and a large number of interceptors were required to counter Iran's imbalanced response."
At the same time, Israel destroyed a significant number of missile launchers, temporarily blocked or destroyed storage facilities, and disrupted the control of missile forces, significantly reducing Tehran's ability to launch missiles. Taleblu stressed that "Iran also learned about its vulnerabilities and is trying to rebuild its arsenal as safely as possible. However, the pace and speed of reconstruction will likely surpass the rate at which Israel is rearming in the short term."
Iran and Israel continue a war of attrition between missile attacks and defensive systems, with Iran appearing to seek to exceed Israel's defensive capacity at a lower cost.
The role of China
Iranian officials argue that concerns about their missiles, as well as their nuclear program, are being used as a pretext for potential future attacks. "What does this issue have to do with the West, which feels entitled to comment on the range of Iran's missiles?" rhetorically asked the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani. "No state has the right to interfere in the independent defense capabilities of another state."
As Iran tries to rebuild its missile arsenal, it is receiving assistance from China. According to CNN, "European intelligence sources report that several shipments of sodium perchlorate, the key precursor for the production of solid fuel that powers Iran's medium-range conventional missiles, have arrived from China at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas." The shipments, totaling about 2,000 tons, began arriving on September 29 and were purchased from Chinese suppliers after the war. "These purchases are considered part of a decisive effort to reconstitute the Islamic Republic's depleted missile stocks," the network notes. "Some of the cargo ships and Chinese companies involved are under US sanctions."
Behnam Taleblu observes that "China appears to be playing a crucial role by supplying the precursor chemicals used in solid fuel, missile propellants, and oxidizers." In addition to strengthening Iran's offensive missile capabilities, China is also considering a deal to supply advanced HQ-9 air defense systems to Tehran to replace those destroyed by Israel during the 12-day war. Despite the focus being on long-range weapons, the reconstruction of Iran's air defenses is a clear priority, following Israel's rapid air superiority during the war.
Nuclear ambitions
The production of new Iranian missiles is part of the broader context of concerns that Tehran has developed a new facility that, according to the US, continues its nuclear ambitions. The US claims to have destroyed much of Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons during Operation Midnight Hammer, when US Air Force B-2 Spirit bombers launched 14 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs on the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities. Furthermore, a nuclear-powered guided missile submarine (SSGN) launched over two dozen Tomahawk missiles at strategic infrastructure in the Isfahan region.
However, as The New York Times reports, Iran "appears to be continuing work at a new enrichment site known as Pickaxe Mountain" and "denies international inspectors access to it or any other suspicious nuclear site beyond those already declared." The result, the newspaper notes, "is a dangerous stalemate—no negotiations, no certainty about Iran's stocks, no independent oversight." Many in the Gulf believe this makes a new Israeli attack on Iran almost inevitable, given the Israelis' long-held view that Iran's nuclear program is an existential threat.
The pace of Iranian missile development may determine the timing of any future conflict with Israel, according to Taleblu. "There is a race to rebuild and improve. For Israel, this means interceptors. For the Islamic Republic of Iran, medium-range ballistic missiles. The uncertain math between the two may determine when the next round of conflict occurs."
"We may need to evacuate Tehran"
At the same time, following a "hot" geopolitical summer, during which Israel and the US attacked Tehran's nuclear facilities and the Islamic Republic, Iran is now facing another severe crisis: water scarcity for its population of over 90 million. Rainfall is at historic lows, with reservoirs nearly empty, in an already arid region of the Middle East. The situation has become so critical that President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that if the drought continues for another month, Tehran's water will have to be rationed. However, this appears to be happening already, as no rain is expected for at least ten days.
Distribution by rationing
Iranians are already being called upon to limit water consumption and use only what is necessary for the most pressing needs. On Monday, November 10, 2025, Pezeshkian made a shocking and unprecedented statement: "If rationing does not work, we may need to evacuate Tehran."
The alarming statement caused a wave of criticism in Iranian media, with the former mayor of Tehran, Gholamhossein Karbaschi, calling it a "joke" and stressing that "evacuating Tehran makes no sense." Some analysts and officials report a rainfall reduction of over 90% compared to last year. As the NY Times notes, the situation is extremely critical: Authorities have already begun water distribution in the capital, while the President warned that evacuation may be necessary.
Water crisis
The country is facing its worst drought in 60 years, with major dams at critically low levels. Water authorities reported this week that the main dams supplying Tehran, on which over 10 million people depend, are at 5% of their capacity.
The spokesperson for the Iranian water industry, Isa Bozorgzadeh, stated that water pressure will be reduced from midnight until morning "to limit urban water loss and give the city's reservoirs time to replenish." Citizens have even taken to social media, such as TikTok, to show that faucets in their homes are not producing water for hours.
Iranian authorities are even considering extreme measures: the Ministry of Energy announced this autumn the practice of "cloud seeding," a weather modification technique that disperses particles, such as silver iodide, into clouds to encourage rainfall. However, for it to work, the clouds must contain at least 50% humidity, which experts say is not currently the case in Iran.
According to the BBC, a critical reservoir, the Latian Dam, one of Tehran's main water sources, now contains less than 10% of its capacity. The nearby Karaj Dam, which supplies water to both Tehran and Alborz province, is in a similarly critical state. "I have never seen this dam as empty as since I was born," a resident told Iranian state television.
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