Iran’s leadership is increasingly concerned that a US military strike could break its grip on power by pushing an already enraged population back into the streets following the violent suppression of anti-government protests, according to six current and former officials. In high-level meetings, officials warned Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that popular anger over last month’s crackdown—the deadliest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution—has reached a point where fear no longer acts as a deterrent. According to Reuters sources, Khamenei was informed that many Iranians are ready to confront security forces again and that external pressure, such as a limited American strike, could embolden them and cause irreparable damage to the political system.
One official told Reuters that Iran’s enemies are seeking new demonstrations aimed at ending the Islamic Republic and that, "unfortunately," any uprising would be met with even more violence. "An attack combined with protests by angry citizens could lead to the regime's collapse. This is the core fear of the supreme leadership, and it is exactly what our enemies want," the official stated.
Concerns within Khamenei’s inner circle
This information is particularly significant as it reveals private anxieties within the leadership that contrast with Tehran’s public, defiant stance toward both protesters and the United States. Sources declined to say how Khamenei reacted. Several sources told Reuters last week that US President Donald Trump is considering options against Iran, including targeted strikes against security forces and leadership figures, with the goal of encouraging protesters. At the same time, Israeli and Arab officials estimate that aerial power alone is not enough to topple the theocratic regime.
‘The people are angry’
A potential uprising following a US strike would differ from the Iranian reaction to Israeli and American bombings of Iran’s nuclear program in June, which were not accompanied by anti-government protests. However, a former senior moderate official stated that the situation has changed since the January crackdown. "The people are extremely angry," he said, adding that an American attack could lead Iranians to a new revolt. "The wall of fear has collapsed. There is no fear anymore." Tensions between Tehran and Washington remain at a high level. The arrival of a US aircraft carrier and escort warships in the Middle East has strengthened Trump’s ability to take military action if he chooses, following repeated threats of intervention due to the bloody suppression in Iran.
‘The game is over’
Many opposition figures, who were part of the establishment before clashing with it, have warned the leadership that "seething popular rage" could lead to the collapse of the Islamic system. "The river of warm blood spilled in the frozen month of January will not stop boiling until it changes the course of history," said former Prime Minister Mirhossein Mousavi, who has been under house arrest without trial since 2011, in a statement published on the reformist website Kalameh. "In what language must the people tell you they do not want this system and do not believe your lies? Enough is enough. The game is over," he added.
During the early January protests, eyewitnesses and human rights organizations reported that security forces suppressed the demonstrations with lethal force, resulting in thousands of deaths and many injuries. Tehran attributed the violence to "armed terrorists" linked to Israel and the United States. Trump ultimately did not follow through on his threats of intervention; however, he has since demanded concessions from Iran on the nuclear issue. Both Tehran and Washington have hinted they are ready to revive diplomacy surrounding the long-standing nuclear dispute.
Underlying rage and the ‘risk of bloodshed’
Analysts and insiders estimate that although the streets are currently quiet, deep-rooted problems remain. Social discontent is simmering due to economic decline, political repression, widening inequality between rich and poor, and corruption, which leaves many Iranians feeling trapped in a system with no way out. "It may not be the end, but it is no longer just the beginning," said Hossein Rassam, a London-based analyst.
If protests resume under increasing international pressure and security forces respond with violence, the six current and former officials estimate that protesters will be bolder than in the past, emboldened by experience and the sense that they have little to lose. One official told Reuters that although people are angrier than ever, the regime will use even harsher methods against protesters in the event of a US attack, resulting in what he called a bloodbath. Ordinary Iranians who spoke to Reuters said they expect a brutal crackdown during any new mobilization.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών