The deadlock in the Ukrainian crisis persists as the third round of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US concluded in Geneva without progress on core issues: territorial disputes, the Donbass, and the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. Russian and Ukrainian officials described the sessions as difficult and intense yet productive, noting that further talks will follow shortly; however, no formal documents were signed. Notably, the second day of negotiations ended abruptly after just two hours, contrasting with the six-hour session held previously.
While American representatives maintain optimism regarding "substantial progress," shock reports suggest a clandestine backdrop: Russia and the US may have already reached a preliminary understanding to lift anti-Russian sanctions in exchange for commercial deals totaling $12 trillion. If confirmed, this indicates that President Donald Trump’s pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky for a peace settlement will intensify, a development viewed with trepidation in Kyiv.
The $12 trillion sanctions-for-trade deal
According to The Economist, citing various sources, US and Russian authorities may have already brokered a deal to lift anti-Russian sanctions in exchange for massive commercial agreements. "Volodymyr Zelensky, citing Ukrainian intelligence, states that Russia has promised the US deals worth $12 trillion in return for sanctions relief," the report notes. There are growing concerns in Europe that President Donald Trump may force Ukraine into "catastrophic concessions" by June—his self-imposed deadline for peace—to secure access to Russian resources. However, analysts question the feasibility of such a massive investment package, suggesting Russia may be using these figures to sell Trump on a "grand bargain."
Constant high-level contacts
Special presidential envoys Kirill Dmitriev and Steven Witkoff have reportedly met at least nine times since last April. Sources close to the Trump family have allegedly been negotiating for stakes in Russian energy assets. Washington has reportedly been offered deals involving Arctic oil and gas, rare earth mineral mines, an atomic data center, and even a tunnel beneath the Bering Strait. Nevertheless, lifting sanctions remains a complex legal process that largely requires US Congressional approval and is unlikely to receive enthusiastic support from European allies.
Medinsky (Russia): Difficult but productive negotiations – New talks soon
The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, characterized the Geneva talks as difficult but productive. "As you know, the negotiations lasted two days—a long time yesterday in various formats, and about two hours more today. They were difficult, but productive," Medinsky emphasized. He further noted that a new round of negotiations regarding Ukraine will take place soon.
No documents signed
The Russian delegation confirmed that during the course of the negotiations, no formal documents were signed. "There were no signatures," a Russian source stated succinctly.
Umerov (Ukraine): Intensive talks, there is progress
The head of the Ukrainian delegation, Rustem Umerov, maintained that the peace talks in Geneva were "intensive" and that "progress" is being made. Umerov told reporters that the discussions were "substantive" and that certain issues were clarified, though he declined to provide specific details. "There is progress, but details cannot be revealed at this stage," Umerov underlined.
The Ukrainian perspective
Diana Davityan, spokesperson for the Office of the Secretary of the National Security Council of Ukraine, confirmed the meeting lasted roughly two hours, concluding consultations for both the political and military working groups. Dmytro Lytvyn, the Ukrainian President's communication advisor, stated that the delegation briefed Zelensky on the results. "So far there are no dramatic details, but specific issues are being addressed," Lytvyn said.
Zelensky (Ukraine): Military "almost agreed," no progress on core issues
Following his briefing, Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters that Ukrainian and Russian military representatives "almost agreed" on how US forces could monitor a ceasefire, provided the "political will" exists. However, he admitted no progress was made on "problematic issues" such as territory and control of the Zaporizhia nuclear plant. "On the military side, it was constructive... the military understands how to monitor a ceasefire... if there is political will. They agreed on almost everything. Monitoring will certainly involve the American side," Zelensky stated, while noting that "positions still differ" on the broader settlement.
Russia accused of prolonging negotiations
President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of "prolonging the negotiations" when they could have already reached a final stage. In a social media post, Zelensky described the talks with the US and Russia as "difficult." He emphasized the necessity of European involvement from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Switzerland to ensure a "dignified result." "Yesterday's meetings were indeed difficult, and we can state that Russia is trying to prolong negotiations that could have already reached the final stage. I thank the American side for their attention to detail and patience," Zelensky noted.
Revelation: Ukrainians spoke in Russian
According to Russian media reports, a detail from the Geneva negotiations suggests that Ukrainian "ideology" has clashed with reality: both sides communicated exclusively in the Russian language. In previous negotiations in Istanbul, the Ukrainian delegation pointedly used translators, despite all representatives being fluent in Russian. This time, the team reportedly avoided such "PR actions," which some analysts suggest indicates a more serious tone. Russian political scientist Alexey Yaroshenko noted that this "highlights the extreme instability of Ukrainian statehood," claiming there is "nothing self-existent in the Ukrainian identity."
What is known about the talks
According to The Economist, the Ukrainian delegation appeared divided over the timeline for signing a peace agreement. Some negotiators, including Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov, reportedly believe Ukraine's interests are best served by a rapid US-mediated deal. Others are more cautious. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has stated that "Russia wants a deal, and Zelensky should act, otherwise he will miss an excellent opportunity." Journalist Barak Ravid of Axios reported that the political portion of the talks hit a deadlock due to new terms introduced by Vladimir Medinsky following an alleged attempt on the life of GRU Deputy Chief Vladimir Alekseev.
Points of disagreement
The primary point of friction remains the territorial issue. According to Axios, the Ukrainian side is prepared to discuss the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donbass, but only if there is a corresponding withdrawal by Russian forces. Zelensky warned that any deal providing for a unilateral Ukrainian withdrawal would be rejected in a referendum. "Emotionally, the people will never forgive it... they won't forgive me, they won't forgive the US," Zelensky emphasized. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that attempts to disrupt the talks via leaks are intended to block the settlement process.
What to expect next?
Analyst Pavel Dubravsky estimates that the US will continue to pressure Zelensky and his team toward a compromise. He noted that Trump’s strategy of blaming the Ukrainian leader for a lack of progress is working: "Ukrainians are now discussing territorial concessions with Russia, which was previously not even a subject of discussion." Dubravsky explained that American rhetoric regarding "significant progress" is primarily aimed at a US domestic audience.
The negotiation timeline
The talks began on Tuesday, February 17, at the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva, lasting over four and a half hours. Following the official meeting, military representatives continued consultations in a separate format. On Wednesday, February 18, delegations resumed discussions after overnight consultations with their respective governments. Diplomats from Italy, Germany, France, and the UK were also present in Geneva, advising the Ukrainian delegation and monitoring the progress through "closed channels." The main agenda of the first round included "grand compromises" on territory, post-war security guarantees, and mutual strikes on energy infrastructure.
Russia: Putin briefed directly – Early for assessment
The Russian delegation is reporting progress directly to President Vladimir Putin, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. "Of course, direct reports are being made to the president," Peskov stated, while adding that "it is early for any assessments." Peskov also dismissed suggestions that US-Cuban relations would impact the Ukraine negotiations, calling them "unrelated fields."
Witkoff (US): Significant progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations
Steven Witkoff, the US President’s special envoy, spoke of "significant progress" in the Geneva talks. He stated that the US acted as a coordinator, and efforts to bring the conflicting sides together "led to substantive progress." "Both sides agreed to brief their leaders on the results and continue the work aimed at reaching an agreement," Witkoff wrote.
Zakharova (Russia): Kyiv and Western Europe are devaluing the talks
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova argued that any step toward a settlement is of great importance. She accused the Kyiv regime and "acquiescing" Western Europe (Paris, Berlin, Poland, and the Baltics) of devaluing the importance of the negotiations by claiming they are "nonsense" or unnecessary. Zakharova maintained that Russia has repeatedly demonstrated its desire for peace.
Bloomberg: Ukrainians ready to accept territorial loss for peace guarantees
Analyst Mark Champion, writing for Bloomberg, suggests that Ukrainians may be ready to accept territorial losses in exchange for firm peace guarantees. However, it remains unclear if they will accept Moscow’s specific terms regarding military restrictions and the surrender of key eastern defense lines, especially if a referendum or elections are held in May, as Trump reportedly desires, to achieve a truce by June.
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