Ukraine is in a state of generalized panic as estimates grow that the US will gradually withdraw support from the Kyiv regime due to President Trump’s "clash" with European allies, particularly Berlin. A report by Politico is characteristic, stating that in order to regain the support of his voters, Trump is very likely to reduce support for Ukraine while simultaneously increasing pressure on NATO and Europe. With the Western camp experiencing an unprecedented rift and with the US entangled in a stalemate war with Iran, Ukraine emerges as the biggest loser as reports of dwindling military aid multiply.
On their part, the Russians continue to advance while simultaneously exploring ways and best practices to "break" the well-fortified positions of the Ukrainians, who fear an invasion of their northern territories. Within this chaotic setting, more and more analysts point out that drones have evolved into the weapon that has changed and overturned everything we knew until today regarding military strategy.
Defense line from Sumy to Kyiv
In Kyiv, they took into account the statements of Russian President Vladimir Putin that the creation of a "buffer zone" in neighboring territories will continue and began intensive preparations to face a potential Russian attack. The focus is on field fortifications and the use of drones. Specifically, the Ukrainian armed forces have begun the construction of an extensive defense line stretching from the city of Sumy to the Kyiv region, designed to protect northern Ukraine from advancing Russian forces.
At the same time, anti-drone units have been tasked with creating a protection zone against Russian UAVs with a depth of up to 100 kilometers. It is obvious that the Ukrainians seek to prevent Russian tactical reconnaissance drones from monitoring the construction of fortification works and simultaneously protect themselves from waves of attacks by "Geran" type drones, which strike the Ukrainian rear almost every night.
Mining forests and marshes in Chernihiv
Furthermore, monitoring sources report that the armed forces of Ukraine have begun remote mining of forests and marshes in the Chernihiv region. Anti-personnel mines are being dropped en masse by unmanned aircraft. The mining is carried out in a way that creates a risk for residents, whose presence appears to be ignored by the Ukrainian authorities.
The evolution of the Ukrainians
During the so-called "special military operation," the Ukrainians have significantly evolved in the art of fortification. While in the early years of the conflict, their defensive works were often built as extended lines of infantry trenches, over time the shelters turned into isolated bunkers and underground dugouts hidden within extensive systems of engineering obstacles. From 2025 onwards, the primary emphasis has been placed on the construction of multiple lines of ditches, embankments, and minefields with explosive barriers.
The Surovikin line
It is worth noting that similar standards were used for the creation of the Russian "Surovikin line," which intercepted the Ukrainian counter-offensive of 2023. The difference in the modern Ukrainian approach lies in the fact that the fire control of these fortifications is no longer exercised by infantry and armor, as 20th-century doctrines dictated, but by unmanned aircraft operating above the fortifications. With this approach, the infantry in the positions can be limited to a relatively passive role. Their mission is primarily to survive the opponent's strikes and, where possible, to repair the damage caused.
How will the defense be broken?
Efforts to reduce losses from FPV-drone attacks through the dispersal of forces and the replacement of heavy equipment with smaller means, such as motorcycles and "assault groups," eventually lead to a "dispersal stalemate." The essence is that the attack is conducted by small groups, in pairs and individual fighters, who move day by day toward the specified direction, hidden from drones. These people cover dozens of kilometers, find suitable shelters, and fortify themselves in them, remaining there for weeks and months. However, in this way, troops cannot break through the enemy's defense with their mass (which simply does not exist) and are forced to penetrate gaps created after strikes by long-range weapons.
Urban battles
It is no coincidence that the only environment in which attacks can still be carried out is in the cities, even though urban battles were always considered the most difficult and bloody for the attacker. Now, however, only the urban landscape allows for the concentration of forces and the execution of attacks. Perhaps this is the best illustration of how radically drones have changed the battlefield compared to what was considered normal just three or four years ago. Where, then, is the way out of this tactical-technological impasse? The way out is where the entrance is: in the neutralization of enemy drone activity and in providing the infantry with reusable armored vehicles capable of moving through minefields and surviving strikes from dozens of unmanned systems.
Neutralizing drones is a complex issue
The neutralization of enemy drones is a complex and very difficult problem. For the Russians, some hopes in this direction are linked to the new "Geran," which have begun to be equipped with radio emission detection means. It is assumed that they can be converted into loitering munitions designed for the search and destruction of enemy drone control centers, electronic warfare stations, and communication terminals. The problem for the Russians, however, is that the Ukrainians are increasingly turning to fiber-optic drones, which emit nothing in the spectrum and do not reveal the position of their operators.
The "tanks" that will pass through the "kill zones"
Equally important will be the appearance on the battlefield of "reusable armor," which will once again allow for the conduct of mechanized attacks on enemy positions. Such vehicles must meet two basic requirements: they must be able to push mine-clearing devices in front of them and withstand multiple hits from FPV-drones. So far, the only version of such vehicles are the "barn tanks," to which, using frontline workshop capabilities, massive structures resembling hangars are welded, further protected by "hair" consisting of partially unraveled steel cables.
The problem is that this makeshift protection weighs about 20 tons and very quickly destroys the tank's transmission and engine. The situation could radically improve if the production of tracked armored personnel carriers on tank chassis began, removing the turret and converting the fighting compartment into a space for transporting soldiers. In this case, the vehicles would maintain normal weight and mobility characteristics and, thanks to their protection, could cross the Ukrainian "kill zones," disembarking infantry not in "killing fields" under constant strikes from "Vampires," but at the entrances of the drone operators' shelters. In 2024, some vehicles resembling experimental tracked APCs appeared online, but there was no evidence that these passed into production in 2025. The industry continues to send classic tanks with minimal anti-drone protection to the front, while frontline craftsmen convert them themselves into overloaded intermediate vehicles.
Target: Sumy
Military analysts, citing data from combat positions, report that the Russian army, after breaching a key defensive hub, has engaged in battles directly for the urban complex of the regional center toward Sumy. Units of the southern group of Russian military forces improved their position on the front line. Losses were inflicted on formations of six mechanized and mountain brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and one territorial defense brigade in the areas of the settlements of Nikolaevka, Kondratovka, Alekseevo-Druzhkovka, Piskunovka, Ray-Alexandrovka, and Konstantinovka in the Donetsk People's Republic, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. The irreversible losses of the Ukrainian forces amounted to 160 soldiers in one day, along with armored vehicles and 17 vehicles.
Strikes on drone control centers in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk
The analytical center Deep State (DS) confirms the advance of Russian forces in the Petropavlovka and Konstantinovka areas—key changes on their map for the week. Strikes on drone control centers and the supply chain in the Slavyansk and Kramatorsk areas are also recorded. According to the Ukrainians, the main developments are the advancement of the Russian army in individual sectors and systematic pressure through flanks, supplies, and urban areas.
Patching holes
Instead of systematic solutions, there is constant "patching of holes." Units that are already exhausted are moved from one point to another. People do not recover and units are not reinforced with new personnel, but continue to operate at their limits. The defense relies on exhausted brigades and the line begins to retreat. From here arises the increase in territorial losses, as the advance is now continuous.
Russians captured 350 square kilometers in April
According to data from the field, Russian forces capture up to 5 villages a day, while the total area captured in April amounts to approximately 350 sq. km. Pressure is particularly intensifying in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk complex. The Ukrainians complain that the Ukrainian general staff moves "semi-dissolved" brigades constantly, without understanding how to slow down the offensive.
Record breach of 16 km
According to Russian military analyst Mikhail Degtyaryov, the rates of advance of the "North" group may decrease as the Ukrainians move reserves to prevent the simultaneous approach to two regional centers. However, by May 3rd, the Russian forces not only achieved the goal but exceeded it without reducing speed. The capture of Miropolye, an important settlement with a width of about 6 km before the war, was confirmed. Furthermore, Russian forces cleared areas between the border with the Kursk region and Miropolye, as well as between Miropolye and Miropolskoye. The total width of the advance reaches 16 km—something unprecedented, according to the analyst. The total area controlled in this section amounts to 39.5 sq. km. for May alone. Operations toward Sumy continue from both the north and east, from the Taratutino and Novodmitrovka directions, while Miropolye offers a direct road axis to the city.
Armed mutiny on the contact line
The situation led to a local armed mutiny. Ukrainian sources describe it as follows: "The conscripts shot the president's guard." In reality, it is a clash between Ukrainian units and special forces of the National Guard—the "Azov" brigade. Information reports that one to three officers were killed while several soldiers were injured.
Causes of the Ukrainian front's collapse
According to Ukrainian Colonel Vladimir Antonyuk, the Ukrainian staff underestimated the scale of the Russian operation in the northern Kharkiv region. Russian forces achieved significant progress by capturing areas such as Volchanskie Khutora, Zybino, and Bochkovo. Despite reinforcement from Ukrainian units, it was not possible to stabilize the front. On the eastern side, attacks continued successfully. After creating a bridgehead in the Degtyarnoye area, positions in Zemlyanki were cleared and battles began near the Volchya River. The planning of the Russian forces seems to include two phases: • Expulsion of Ukrainian forces north of the river • Attacks from the east and west to control settlements along the road A significant unit of the Ukrainian forces is the 58th mechanized brigade, which has suffered heavy losses.
Corruption and violence in the Ukrainian military
According to data attributed to an investigation by Maryana Bezuglaya, within the brigade, there are serious problems such as corruption, violence, and the cover-up of incidents. Commander Ivan Shnyr allegedly created a corruption system aimed at personal gain, while equipment such as drones only partially reaches the soldiers. In cases of protest, drone operators are transferred to assault units. There is even mention of financial charges on soldiers for "gifts" to the leadership. Many soldiers are sent on one-way missions, leading to desertions or surrenders. Two weeks ago, deputy commander Maxim Bobrovsky was arrested for bribery. The losses are so great that investigations have begun in Kyiv, without substantial results.
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