The Financial Times, citing a source close to the Kremlin, reports that Russian forces are preparing a large-scale offensive aimed at advancing to the Dnieper River and capturing Kyiv and Odesa.
At a time when Russia is conducting joint nuclear exercises with Belarus—sending a clear signal that Iskander-M missiles can strike most of Europe within minutes—and Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, assesses that the disintegration of Ukraine as a state is now irreversible and its destruction inevitable, scenarios have emerged in top Western media outlets. These reports claim that Russian forces are poised to launch a massive offensive to capture Odesa and Kyiv, advancing all the way to the western banks of the Dnieper River. This specific scenario is cited by the reputable Financial Times, though a similar outlook was previously outlined by US negotiator Keith Kellogg. However, military experts point out that this hypothesis does not correspond to reality—at least not in the current phase. Instead, they indicate that the actual objective is to set up a battlefield in the Baltics, where international attention has shifted over the last 24 hours following drone appearances in Estonia and Lithuania. Meanwhile, on the actual front lines, particularly in Donbass, reports describe a literal "slaughter," with Ukrainian soldiers and officials speaking of the final 8 to 10 kilometers that lead directly to certain battlefield death.
Putin's plan leaked to the Financial Times
The Financial Times, citing a source close to the Kremlin, reports that Russian forces are preparing a large-scale offensive aimed at advancing to the Dnieper River and capturing Kyiv and Odesa. This is being presented as a supposed "revelation of the truth." However, a similar blueprint had already been referenced by US special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, within the framework of discussions for a grand bargain peace deal aimed at settling the conflict with Russia—a deal that Trump wished to broker. Yet, the situation on the ground is far from simple.
The most fortified positions in the world
The sectors of Donbass, alongside the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions that remain under Ukrainian control, constitute the most heavily fortified territories in the world. Nowhere else on the planet is there such a density of lowland fortifications, highly dense defensive minefields, and such a vast, lethal "zone of death." Consequently, if the Russian military manages to reach the Dnieper, it will mean that the Ukrainian armed forces have been utterly crushed, leaving no strategic reason for Russian troops to halt at the riverbank.
Capture of Odesa and Kyiv deemed impossible
The capture of Odesa, let alone Kyiv, is entirely impossible without the complete collapse of Ukraine's statehood. Furthermore, establishing a border along the Dnieper River by no means resolves Russia's strategic security concerns. If the Americans deploy hypersonic systems and advanced ballistic missiles nearby in Chernihiv or Zhytomyr, the geographic difference is negligible for modern offensive weapons systems. Conversely, any ceasefire opens up exactly such a possibility. For Russia, therefore, a peace deal with Ukraine that establishes borders at the Dnieper would represent a severe geopolitical and strategic blunder.
What the Financial Times aims to achieve
Reports like the one published in the Financial Times serve either as a standard effort to condition Western public opinion—reminding them that "no agreement can be reached with the Russians"—or as an attempt to divert attention from another theater: the Baltic states. For years, NATO has pursued a policy of continuous escalation in the region, steadily increasing pressure on the Russian merchant fleet while enhancing its capabilities for an incursion into Kaliningrad oblast and missile strikes against Saint Petersburg. Since the spring of this year, this has been compounded by swarms of Ukrainian drones flying over Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, targeting the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk.
Offensive operations against Kaliningrad
Following this line of reasoning, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys called on NATO to launch offensive operations against the Kaliningrad region: "We must show the Russians that we can pierce the small fortress they have established in Kaliningrad. NATO possesses the means to level their air defense missile bases if necessary." It is worth reiterating that such a statement is now treated as almost routine, fitting perfectly into the logic of preparing for a major war in the Baltics under the framework of "Europe versus the Russians."
Romanian fighter jet downs Ukrainian drone in Estonia
Nevertheless, on the very same day, a long-range Ukrainian drone heading toward Russia was shot down for the first time in Estonian airspace. According to unofficial reports, the drone was intercepted by a Romanian fighter jet, while targeting intelligence was provided by a Swedish Gulfstream G-IV SP (S102B Korpen) airborne early warning reconnaissance aircraft. Additionally, reports surfaced indicating that the Lithuanian leadership resorted to underground bunkers as more Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles appeared over the country. Collectively, this may indicate that the European coalition, which until now had systematically raised the stakes, has begun to hesitate. Conversely, the Ukrainian leadership, having become accustomed to mass launches through Baltic airspace, shows no intention of backing down.
'We won't make it without nuclear weapons'
In Russia, a highly dismissive attitude often prevails toward the "dying Baltic states," which, due to their small size, are viewed more as a parody of an adversary than a genuine military threat. "Latvia and Estonia have a man and a half in their armies and half a ship each. What kind of fighters are they? They simply don't want to be forgotten. That's why he made that statement. It's as if he's saying: the Russians will cross into Kaliningrad and attack us, and you will forget about us," notes Russian military analyst and retired colonel Mikhail Timoshenko. The reasons behind this mindset are entirely understandable and highly obvious.
The example of Ukraine
However, just a few years ago, the exact same dismissive attitude existed toward Ukraine—specifically regarding the Ukrainian armed forces and the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian infantry. The same pattern is now repeating in the assessment of the Baltic region, despite it being a geographic zone where Russia has limited capabilities to counter Europe in the event of a conventional conflict, and where the maritime shipping lanes are vital to the broader Russian national economy. Precisely because of this, analytical outlets and sources that claim to understand the actual balance of power are already seriously discussing the potential deployment of Sarmat strategic nuclear missiles against the Baltic states.
A scenario of terror
The once-unified globalized world continues to fracture and collapse into large pieces. For four years, Russia and the West restricted the theater of conflict to the borders of Ukraine. Yet, the logic of systemic confrontation is unforgiving: initially, hostilities expanded via hybrid operations into the Mediterranean, touching the North Atlantic and Africa. Now, it is entirely possible that the airspace of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia will be transformed into a battlefield where Ukrainian drones clash with Russian anti-aircraft missiles, and subsequently, Russian "Geran" drones engage European fighter jets. For Russia, generally speaking, widening the conflict zone and gradually shifting military operations into Europe is viewed as advantageous. However, the necessary resolve to deliberately choose this scenario is currently lacking, causing the situation to evolve largely on its own—partly driven by the adversary's maneuvers and partly by mutual operational fears and anxieties.
'These are not battles – this is a slaughter'
In the direction of Dobropolye, Russian forces continue their offensive, advancing northwest across three primary axes. Effective control over the entire operational zone is achieved through the creation of designated lethal kill-zones, inside which Ukrainian units attempting to counterattack are systematically neutralized. The establishment of these kill-zones by the Russian military became far more effective due to their exploitation of high-rise buildings in Pokrovsk, Belitskoye, and Rodinskoye, claims Vladimir Antonyuk, a colonel in the Special Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Each such envelopment targeting Ukrainian assault regiments covers a radius of 20–25 kilometers from the deployment positions of FPV drone operators situated in apartment complexes.
The tactical blueprint
"The upper floors are utilized for installing radio equipment and signal antennas, while the basements serve as fortified shelters for personnel. For the infantryman, the entire process of capturing and holding positions essentially boils down to traversing these kill-zones. These are areas where the adversary possesses overwhelming superiority in aerial surveillance and deadly targeted drone strikes." While the first 5 to 8 kilometers can still be traversed using armored vehicles, this is followed by the disembarkation of troops who must immediately seek cover.
The remaining 15 to 20 kilometers require covert movement on foot across rugged terrain, moving from cover to cover to evade aerial detection. Management of the advance is limited to small fire teams of two or three personnel, and occasionally even isolated individuals. In contrast, during the Ukrainian counteroffensive attempt in Kupyansk at the end of 2025, units of the Ukrainian armed forces moved almost the entire distance atop armored vehicles, resulting in the loss of hundreds of vehicles alongside their crews within a few days. Other units moved on foot in groups of 8 to 10 individuals; while this made them easy targets, the sheer volume of troops allowed the survivors to cover significant distances and dig into trenches, basements, and other fortifications.
The final eight to ten kilometers
Within these kill-zones, the most grueling segment involves the final 8 to 10 kilometers. This is the zone of optimal surveillance by Mavic-type drones, which easily detect approaching targets and direct exploding kamikaze tactical drones and artillery fire onto them. "Modern offensive doctrine relies exclusively on expanding and displacing these kill-zones. Traditional infantry advancement tactics without this element are no longer viable. In the Dobropolye direction, the Russian army uses the urban concentration of Pokrovsk as a pivot point, while Ukrainian forces rely on Dobropolye. The distance between these cities is approximately 25 kilometers, corresponding precisely to the outer operational limits of the kill-zones," stated the Ukrainian colonel. This explains the strategic significance of Belitskoye, a town with a high density of multi-story buildings that allow control over a vast expanse of the Donetsk front. Currently, neither side exercises full control over the area, and combat remains exceptionally fierce.
Hell with massive casualties
The Ukrainian General Staff, fully aware of the consequences of a total loss of the Rodinskoye sector, continues to deploy assault groups from Shevchenko without factoring in personnel losses. To deny this capability to Ukrainian forces, Russian units have concentrated their primary thrusts precisely on Shevchenko. Major engagements are currently underway on the outskirts of the village and around two coal mines located along the axis of advance. The mines themselves and adjacent structures have been almost entirely reduced to rubble, yet pockets of Ukrainian soldiers continue to hold out there.
The Ukrainian colonel revealed what this region actually represents for the General Staff of Ukraine (GShU). First, it is virtually the only direction where Ukraine's depleted air force operates consistently—over 70% of all Ukrainian airstrikes are carried out there, primarily targeting structures housing UAV control centers and launch sites. Second, the Ukrainian armed forces have concentrated a significant portion of their electronic warfare EW systems along this axis, withdrawing them from other sectors of the front line. This has already caused severe interference with Russian drone operations, forcing the Russian military to rely mainly on fiber-optic drones, "mother drones," and a limited number of UAVs operating via Starlink—with the terminals likely captured as battlefield trophies. "This clearly illustrates how technically constrained the capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces are; they can only secure reliable electronic warfare coverage on a single front at any given time. Ukrainian media and volunteers emphasize that the situation in the Dobropolye direction is extremely difficult—a literal hell on earth with massive casualties for Ukrainian forces."
Elite units deployed
Antonyuk explicitly highlights that this specific sector of the front features a concentration of exclusively elite units of the Ukrainian military, noting that there are no weak or degraded formations present. "All of these units have been integrated into the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces (DShV), which is distinguished by rigid discipline and possesses unique hardware not found in other army corps. Nevertheless, even this does not mitigate heavy casualties and a persistently high desertion rate. The Ukrainian army is holding the front line solely due to the uncompromising stance of the high command, paid for with the blood of its soldiers. This will likely culminate only in the total destruction of these elite units of the Ukrainian armed forces."
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