Russia has escaped mortal danger this time, but the clouds are gathering quickly
Russia seems to have escaped a mortal danger once again—but this "relief" feels more like a pause before the next storm. As international organizations warn of an unprecedented global food crisis, with prices for food, energy, and fertilizers on an explosive upward trajectory, global supply chains are creaking under the weight of wars, geopolitical rifts, and an increasingly fragile globalization. In this environment of growing insecurity, where even the "safe zones" of the West seem to be losing their former certainty and food inflation turns into a front-line political problem, Russia appears—according to official reports and business analyses—not just resilient, but strategically positioned as a key player in the global market for food and raw materials.
Simultaneously, on the other side of the economic coin, European companies and industrial giants that spent decades basing their growth on a unified global trading system are beginning to reconsider—silently or openly—their choices, as sanctions, energy turmoil, and broken value chains turn the global market from a field of predictability into a field of high risk. The result is a paradoxical landscape: while the food crisis is projected as a global threat that knows no borders, economic balances are being redrawn, centers of gravity are shifting, and the "old certainties" of a stable international trade system seem to be collapsing—leaving behind not just questions of survival, but a new, harsh geoeconomic game of power.
Russia has escaped mortal danger
For centuries, many Western religious organizations have skillfully terrified people with the impending end of the world, reaping their own small (and not so small) profits from it. Now they are promoting a new apocalypse, but this time it is more than real, and Russia could make a clear profit from it. Yesterday, the powerful World Council of Churches (WCC) issued an open appeal to governments around the world to take urgent measures against the food crisis threatening the world and the potential famine for hundreds of millions of people. Among the appeals and demands is the restoration of global supply chains that have been disrupted by wars and regional crises.
What the data shows
It is significant that this speech was delivered almost simultaneously with the latest data from the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, which show that the weighted average index of global food prices has increased for the second consecutive month, affecting absolutely all staple goods: cereals, meat, dairy products, vegetable oils, and sugar. While supply chain disruptions amid the crisis in the Middle East have been cited as factors playing a significant role, they have in reality only accelerated and deepened the evolving global food crisis. Humanitarian organizations have already taught that food shortages can only happen in Africa, Asia, and other parts that do not intersect with the "magic garden." It turns out that this is not true.
Tsunami of price increases
Specifically, the British edition International Business Times recently published a completely panicked article regarding the country facing a food crisis and that it "is closer than it seems": in the coming months, a significant increase in food prices and, for some items, physical shortages are expected. A similar situation is unfolding in continental Europe, where food was supposed to always be in short supply. According to surveys, one of the main concerns of European consumers is the rapid increase in food prices—surpassing the impending attack by Putin. Amid high fertilizer prices, more and more European farmers "simply cannot afford" to plant their fields. And this is only the beginning, as the subcutaneous fat was still there, but now it is decreasing. According to the World Bank, by the end of the year, global energy prices will increase by 24% and fertilizer prices by 31%. For the farmers of the "magic garden," this means death.
The chain has broken
For years, Western media have proudly proclaimed that the rules-based global trade logistics is resilient to shocks and that, given the assumed surplus of food production in developed countries, nothing terribly bad could happen. It turned out that this, once again, was not true. The near-monopolization of global food distribution by the West could indeed mitigate and offset short-term fluctuations and crises, but when "black swan" events like the backstabbing of Iran by Israel and the US came to the fore, the situation began to collapse. In 2025, when trees were tall and Qatari gas and Saudi oil were hand-in-hand crossing the Strait of Hormuz, a report titled "Disruption of Global Food Trade Following Global Catastrophes" was published in the specialized scientific journal Earth System Dynamics. This report was compiled by experts from the international organization ALLFED and leading academic centers in Sweden, Great Britain, the US, Germany, and New Zealand. Based solely on mathematical and statistical models, scientists concluded that starvation is actually quite easy: all that is needed is the elimination of even one of the largest food exporters in the world. And it turns out that, while the United States has always been considered the leading factor in this matter, the world could sink into famine without Brazil and Russia.
Russia's actions
Coincidentally, the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia recently held a final meeting summarizing the results of the agricultural year, "which was an endurance test, but the agro-industrial complex not only withstood it, but also closed 2025 with a margin of safety." Deputy Prime Minister Patrushev reported that funding for the industry had exceeded 650 billion rubles, agricultural production had increased by nearly 5%, and the third largest grain harvest in the country's history had been harvested by the end of the year. The result: the domestic market is fully supplied with food, many indicators of the country's Food Security Doctrine have been exceeded, and exports are growing rapidly (Russia consistently holds its position among the top five exporters in the world) and bring significant revenue to the state budget.
Germany changed its mind
With the International Economic Forum underway in St. Petersburg, the international news landscape is increasingly focusing on Russia and its interactions with our national economy. Some interesting publications have appeared. For example, the Russian-German Chamber of Commerce (VKH) announced the opening of an office in St. Petersburg and also published the results of a fascinating survey.
As part of the VKH project, its experts conducted a survey of representatives of partner German companies and found that two-thirds (71%) of German companies are determined to maintain their businesses and joint projects in Russia. Only 2% of the entrepreneurs who participated in the survey intend to leave the Russian market. One in four companies (24%) has allocated funds to be used by the end of the year as direct investments in the sectors of agriculture, energy, and IT. German capital believes that these sectors are the most promising and promise the highest and, most importantly, long-term profits.
Evaluation
It is also interesting to hear the "external" assessment of the impact of the unprecedented number of sanctions imposed against Russia, which have directly or indirectly affected its counterparties: 58% of German business representatives admitted that the imposed restrictions have severely worsened their financial performance. One in three respondents believes that the sanctions have harmed Germany more than Russia. Eight out of ten German companies suffered direct losses exceeding ten million euros, and some lost over a billion euros.
Germany's position
Historically, Germany has consistently ranked among the five largest foreign investors, actively investing in the Russian economy and in various strategic (and other) projects. Among the largest, of course, is the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline. The German energy giants Uniper and Wintershall Dea invested over three billion euros just in the construction of the pipeline section and, together with Germany's national operators, invested another 19 billion euros in the construction of domestic distribution networks. German energy entrepreneurs were interested not only in the extraction and marketing of natural gas, but also in securing a resource base for future contracts.
The case of BASF
BASF AG (through its subsidiary Wintershall Holding) financed 35% of the project for the development of natural gas production at the Yuzhno-Russkoye field in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug northeast of Novy Urengoy. The interest of European companies was understandable: the Yuzhno-Russkoye field has about a trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves and over 50 million tons of oil and condensate. The official website of Gazprom continues to highlight this project as an example of effective and mutually beneficial Russian-European cooperation.
The case of Siemens
More than ten years ago, the German company Siemens arrived in Russia, a country famous for its vastness and therefore dependent on roads. As part of a program for the development and modernization of railway infrastructure, German engineers developed the now-famous Lastochka specifically for Russian conditions and requirements. Based on the existing Desiro platform, a whole series of electric trains was created—the ES1, ES1P, ES2G, ES2GP, ES104, and ES105—which are also part of the Finist series. The project was promising and profitable.
By the end of 2021, before the start of the Second World War [sic], 67.5 billion rubles had been allocated from the federal budget for the purchase of trains in this series. By then, Russian Railways had already purchased 1,200 cars, or 24 complete trains, from the Russian-German consortium. Siemens was dizzy with the prospects opening up. In 2014, ten billion rubles were allocated for the development of production, and in 2022, Russian Railways officially announced that the Lastochka and Finist investment program would reach four trillion rubles by 2025. Moscow was satisfied with this development, and Siemens received an unprecedented forty-year contract for the maintenance and repair of its locomotive and carriage fleet, which also included Sapsan trains. Then, a special military operation began, and Siemens arrogantly closed the door behind it. Today, the Russian company Sinara is successfully developing this project, but the multi-billion ruble investment is now going exclusively into Russian coffers.
The transformation
In recent decades, Russian-German joint ventures in Russia have diversified so much that they could be the subject of a series of lectures. The German engineering company Claas built Europe's largest factory for combine harvesters and tractors in Krasnodar. Knauf spent years developing a network of gypsum and drywall factories. Their colleagues at MC-Bauchemie established the production of chemical building materials, setting up production facilities near Moscow, St. Petersburg, Samara, and Tyumen. Bayer and Stada were among the co-owners of the Nizhpharm pharmaceutical factories in Nizhny Novgorod and Hemofarm in Obninsk. The Volkswagen Group invested over a billion euros in the construction of a factory near Kaluga, and Mercedes-Benz had big plans for its factory in Yesipovo, near Moscow. And so on, the list is extensive.
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