For months, one of Ukraine's biggest problems has not been the lack of anti-aircraft systems, but the steadily declining availability of missiles to protect its skies against massive Russian attacks. While the United States and European countries look for ways to increase missile production for Patriot systems, retired Russian colonel and military analyst Mikhail Khodarenok formulates a particularly interesting claim. According to him, Kyiv was not planning to create a new Patriot industry from scratch; instead, he argues it was attempting to utilize existing Soviet expertise in producing 5V55K and 5V55R missiles for S-300 systems, converting them into missiles compatible with American Patriot launchers.
The factory in Vyshneve at the center
Khodarenok reports that until recently in Vyshneve, near Kyiv, an industrial facility operated with experience in manufacturing 5V55 series missiles used by S-300 systems. In his view, this production base constituted Ukraine's most significant advantage. Instead of designing an entirely new missile—a process requiring years of research, development, and testing—an existing missile airframe could be used, complete with a ready engine, aerodynamic design, and mechanical subsystems. This, according to the Russian analyst, would drastically reduce development time.
The S-300 problem
Khodarenok contends that Ukraine found itself facing a uniquely difficult paradox. During the war, a large portion of S-300 launchers was either destroyed or rendered operationally inactive. However, according to his analysis, a significant number of missiles remained available. Thus a problem arose that is rarely encountered in modern warfare: ammunition existed, but there were not enough systems to utilize them. This, he assesses, led the Ukrainian side to search for an alternative solution.
The "hybrid Patriot" concept
The most intriguing aspect of Khodarenok's analysis concerns the manner in which, according to him, the conversion could be carried out. The Russian analyst maintains that manufacturing a completely new missile would not be necessary.
The core idea was to preserve:
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the missile airframe,
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the solid-fuel engine,
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the mechanical parts,
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the flight structure,
while replacing Soviet electronics with American avionics, a new guidance system, and equipment compatible with Patriot units. According to him, this would allow the production of a "hybrid" missile in a far shorter timeframe than developing a brand-new weapon.
The German option that did not proceed
Khodarenok further asserts that prior to talks with the United States, cooperation with the German defense industry had been actively explored. The goal was adapting 5V55 missiles to operate alongside the IRIS-T system. The plan, according to him, included installing a German infrared seeker head. However, as he claims, the performance expected from this conversion was deemed unsatisfactory, and thus the program did not move forward.
Negotiations with the United States
The Russian analyst argues that contacts subsequently turned toward the United States. According to him, the main argument from the Ukrainian side was that establishing an entirely new industrial facility was not required. The production base already existed. The Americans, under his claim, would provide the necessary licensing, technical expertise, and electronic systems, while Ukrainian industry would handle manufacturing and assembly. It is worth noting, however, that independent reports confirm Kyiv is working to acquire expertise and production licenses for Patriot missiles by late 2026, without confirming this specific S-300 conversion scenario.
Could it work?
Even Khodarenok himself acknowledges that such a program would not produce a full equivalent of the Patriot PAC-3. PAC-3 missiles are designed for ballistic missile interception under an entirely different operational philosophy. The converted missiles, according to him, would closer resemble the capabilities of PAC-2 variants, which are primarily utilized against aircraft and cruise missiles.
The attack that, according to him, changed everything
The most critical point of the analysis concerns the strike on facilities in Vyshneve. Khodarenok assesses that Russian attacks caused such severe damage to production and storage infrastructure that continuing the program became virtually impossible. He further claims that hours of secondary explosions were likely caused by detonating S-300 missile warheads and igniting solid-fuel rocket motors rather than depleted uranium munitions.
The question for Donald Trump
At the conclusion of his analysis, Khodarenok refers to statements made by Donald Trump regarding potential licenses for producing Patriot missiles in Ukraine. He ponders whether the American president was already aware of the condition of facilities in Vyshneve when making those specific remarks. He implies that Trump's statements may have been made after the production base had already suffered severe damage, though without presenting concrete evidence to substantiate this hypothesis.
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