Israel will attack Iran within the next year if it concludes that Tehran is moving to restore its high-level uranium enrichment, European diplomats told Al-Monitor.
A Western diplomat said that a new operation would be “short and intense”, but strategically limited.
“Iran will obviously respond by launching missiles, possibly striking buildings as it did the previous time,” the diplomat added, noting that the fundamental balance of power will remain unchanged.
The current post-war balance is deeply unstable, Raz Zimmt of the Institute for National Security Studies told Al-Monitor.
Israel, he added, has not yet defined precise red lines regarding Iran’s ballistic missile program, but a return to uranium enrichment, weaponization work, or efforts to recover the roughly 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% believed to have been lost in the June attacks would almost certainly provoke a reaction.
“The longer time passes without the United States and Iran reaching a nuclear agreement, the more likely a new round of conflict becomes,” Zimmt said.
Stalemate in diplomacy and Iranian pressure
Iran is repositioning itself, healing the damage in air defense, missile systems and protective measures around its nuclear centers, a process that, according to Zimmt, may continue for up to a year without triggering an Israeli attack.
But he warned that Iran is essentially in a posture of “neither war nor peace”, a phrase used by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with sanctions undermining the economy while enrichment remains restricted.
Khamenei’s recent statement that the United States is “not worthy” of dialogue has further complicated prospects for a diplomatic solution.
Israeli officials argue that any U.S.–Iran agreement must limit enrichment to 3.67%, restore strict inspections and determine the fate of the missing enriched uranium.
Without these terms, some say, easing sanctions would be unjustifiable.
Trump, he said, appears convinced that the 2025 attacks destroyed Iran’s program, a view that reduces U.S. pressure and leaves Israel preparing for a confrontation it sees as increasingly likely.
“The new U.S. national security strategy serves Israel”
Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the Middle East section of the newly released U.S. national security strategy on Sunday, with spokesman Esmail Baghaei calling it Israel’s national security document, while stating that Tehran will study the text.
“The Islamic Republic will examine the strategy, but at first glance it is clear that the White House continues to pursue the same goals as previous American administrations,” Baghaei told reporters at his weekly briefing.
“Washington has focused all its efforts on imposing Israeli dominance in the region.”
The document, published late Thursday, appears to downplay the scale of the threat from Iran and offers only superficial references to Tehran.
“Iran, the main destabilizing power in the region, has been significantly weakened by Israeli actions since 7 October 2023 and by President Trump’s June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer, which significantly downgraded Iran’s nuclear program,” the document states.
“America will always have core interests in ensuring that the Gulf’s energy supplies do not fall into enemy hands and that the Strait of Hormuz remains open,” it adds.
During the 12-day conflict in 2025, the United States and Israel carried out coordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that the attacks on Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan destroyed Iran’s program.
Clashes with Hezbollah and Lebanon
Baghaei also referred to the growing international demands for the disarmament of Hezbollah.
The organization, he said, “decides on its behavior and policies on its own”, rejecting Iranian interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs.
He avoided commenting on reports that Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Youssef Raji had declined an invitation to visit Iran.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi invited Raji on 4 December for consultations on bilateral relations and regional developments, and Raji said he would respond through diplomatic channels.
Israel’s Ynet reported that Raji preferred to meet Araghchi in a “neutral country”.
“The disarmament of Hezbollah and the dismantling of its military structure are Lebanese demands, independent of international demands,” Raji told Al Arabiya on Saturday.
A new Gallup poll shows strong Lebanese support for a unified national force: about 79% of respondents said that only the Lebanese army should possess weapons.
No more games in Iran’s airspace, it received its first S-400 from Russia
In the aftermath of the Israeli air raids against Tehran and major Iranian strategic infrastructure during the conflict between the two countries last June, Iran decided to decisively strengthen its air defense, even turning to Russia.
Iranian media reported that a Russian long-range S-400 air defense system was deployed in the country for testing under operational conditions, conducted near the city of Isfahan.
According to the reports, the test included 91N6E detection radar, 92N6E engagement radar, a command and control unit, and multiple mobile surface-to-air missile launchers.
If these reports are confirmed, it remains uncertain whether this means Iran has ordered the system, or whether the Russian Aerospace Forces deployed it in the country to advertise its capabilities.
It is noted that in the past Iranian officials expressed a lack of interest in the S-400, claiming that the domestic Bavar 373 system could offer comparable capabilities.
However, Iran’s limited experience in developing long-range air defense systems and its much smaller technological base have cast doubt on these claims.
Domestic air defense systems are not enough
Although Iranian government sources reported that the Bavar 373 was responsible for shooting down three of the four reported F-35I fifth-generation fighters during clashes with Israel in June, the system’s possible weaknesses, the need to diversify the air arsenal, or Iran’s inability to produce domestic systems quickly enough may have strengthened interest in the S-400.
If the decision to procure the S-400 resulted from the hostilities in June, it is likely that the system now being tested in Iran is staffed by Russian soldiers, since there was not enough time to retrain Iranian crews.
Even so, the fact that Iran’s Air Defense Forces have been using the S-300PMU-2 since 2016, which is a direct predecessor of the S-400, could allow quicker integration of the new system into service through retraining of this personnel.
Structural changes in Iranian air defense and reinforcement from China
Nevertheless, the future of Iran’s air defense network remains uncertain, having faced extensive criticism for its inability to seriously challenge Israeli and American air strikes from 13 to 24 June.
Among the reports in July was information that China supplied air defense systems to the Iranian armed forces, reportedly the long-range HQ-9B systems, widely considered equivalent to the S-400.
Supplying both systems would not be unprecedented, as Algeria, which perceives similar threats from NATO attacks, operates both in complementary roles.
Still, while China continues to widely promote the HQ-9B for export, Russia faces shortages of S-400, despite significant increases in its production capacity, raising doubts about the accuracy of the reports on recent deliveries to Iran.
Russia has delivered S-400 to Belarus and India, but has been forced to delay further deliveries to India, mainly due to the significant strain on its defense forces caused by the ongoing Russia–Ukraine War and rising tensions with NATO.
Next step is strengthening Tehran’s air fleet
Without confirmed details on any foreign system deliveries to Iran, there remains a significant possibility that the reports of deliveries of either Chinese systems or S-400 to the country have no basis.
Even if deliveries of both systems are confirmed, Iran will remain somewhat vulnerable due to the lack of complementary aircraft, such as modern fighters and airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems. This limits its ability to counter more advanced threats, especially as Israel continues expanding its F-35I fleet and plans to begin receiving advanced F-15EX fighters.
Although Iranian sources have stated since 2022 that Su-35 fighters have been ordered, deliveries have not taken place, while orders for advanced Chinese fighters such as the J-10C and J-16 require years of training to prepare for operations.
The ability to rapidly train personnel to operate long-range ground-based systems allows them to offer much more immediate solutions to Iran’s vulnerability, with modern fighters and AEW&C platforms expected to require several years to become operational, even if sufficient investments are made.
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