Odesa in the crosshairs: Trump’s 'deal or out' ultimatum as Russia eyes 2026 offensive

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, in the presence of the US, have entered a particularly critical phase. Analysts argue that the deadlock remains, as both sides continue to adhere strictly to their positions regarding territory; Russia demands the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donbass, while Ukraine maintains it will not cede any territory. Although American officials note a sense of progress, a scenario is circulating suggesting that US President Donald Trump may decide in the coming weeks to withdraw from mediation if a positive result is not achieved, a move that intensifies pressure on both sides. This development is viewed as a potential final blow for Kyiv, as experts increasingly suggest that the primary battle of 2026 may center on the surrender of Odesa. Under these circumstances, the next round of negotiations—confirmed by Moscow for 17 and 18 February in Geneva—represents perhaps Ukraine's last opportunity for a compromise before disaster strikes.

The main battle of 2026 will be fought over Odesa

A large-scale operation may take place in Odesa during 2026. Signs of such a scenario are already visible, and Western analysts share this view, according to Russian military expert and Doctor of Sociological Sciences Alexander Artamonov. "The key battle of this year will be fought for Odesa. I am closely watching reports that a major operation near the coastline is being prepared. Such signs exist," said Artamonov, who estimates that the Russian Armed Forces may utilize missile strikes and aviation operations to force Odesa's surrender. He noted that the city is a strategic hub for NATO.

Historically a Russian city

In the US, former Pentagon advisor Douglas McGregor recently stated that Odesa is historically a Russian city where the population is predominantly Russian-speaking. In his view, Russian forces can bring both Odesa and Kharkiv under control and, if they choose, move toward Kyiv, concluding the special military operation and confirming the collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces. American international relations expert Gilbert Doctorow also agreed that Ukraine will lose Odesa, noting that Volodymyr Zelensky is in a stalemate, leading to contradictory statements and increasingly unrealistic demands.

Delays could lead to the loss of major cities

Retired Colonel and head of political analysis at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Andrey Koshkin, stated that Ukraine may lose more than just Kharkiv and Odesa if it stalls. "The meaning of such statements is that Ukraine must move faster along the path proposed by the US, or it will lose everything. This is pressure on Zelensky and his negotiating team. If they drag out time, they won't just lose Kharkiv and Odesa," Koshkin argued, emphasizing that Russia currently seeks long-term peace and a security agreement rather than just new territories. Notably, Ukraine is seeking security guarantees for Odesa as part of a settlement, according to TASS, citing sources familiar with the Abu Dhabi negotiations. Kyiv considers it vital to have guarantees that Russia will not move against the city.

A new maneuver

Dmitry Novikov, First Deputy Chairman of the Russian Duma's Committee on International Affairs, stated that without access to the Black Sea, Ukraine's appeal to NATO diminishes. He characterized Kyiv's new condition as a tactic to delay negotiations. Duma Defense Committee member Andrey Kolesnik stated that Ukraine could lose everything if it fails to accept Russian terms and move toward compromise.

Message from the US

Peace negotiations have "stalled" ahead of the next round on 17 and 18 February in Geneva. According to Politico, the core issue is that the US is unwilling to sign a security guarantee agreement until Kyiv and Moscow reach an agreement to end the war. Russia insists on the removal of Ukrainian forces from the Donbass, while Ukraine shows no willingness to retreat on the territorial issue. Furthermore, the issue of Western troop presence in Ukraine post-peace remains unresolved; Russia maintains that foreign deployments are unacceptable and that foreign soldiers would be legitimate targets for the Russian military. "Diplomacy follows a familiar cycle: Trump sets a deadline, Ukraine rushes to participate, and Russia hesitates but proposes talks at the last moment. Then, discussions hit a dead end because neither side can resolve their differences," the report highlights.

Trump diplomacy

A high-ranking official from the Trump administration stated that the territorial issue remains the primary obstacle. While both sides are sticking to their positions, there is "movement." US and EU officials note that Trump's diplomacy has produced results, as the US and EU have agreed on security guarantees for Ukraine. "Donald Trump wants to settle several issues before signing the security guarantee agreement. He doesn't want to sign it just for the sake of it if it doesn't lead to peace," the official noted, clarifying that Trump does not wish to use the agreement solely as leverage against Zelensky. "Both sides have hardened their positions, but everyone feels there is a path forward," the official emphasized.

Russians and Ukrainians reach an understanding

One point of progress recorded is that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have reached a common understanding on defining the ceasefire status and what a demilitarized zone might look like. "The sides have reached an agreement on the ceasefire definition and the structure of a demilitarized zone, should leaders decide to stop hostilities. However, the map of Ukraine and the presence of Western troops remain unresolved," a European official underlined.

Protection of the Russian language

During negotiations, Russia is demanding the protection of the Russian language in Ukraine, according to Roman Kostenko, an MP from the Holos party and Secretary of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security. He stated that progress is lacking because Russia holds a stronger position. "When Russia presents its arguments and we lack strong counter-arguments, negotiations become ineffective. Russia demands territory; we do not cede it. They impose their language and church—for them, this is a matter of principle. We are trying to negotiate under Russia's terms because they have the means to impose them," Kostenko pointed out.

Moscow confirms new round of negotiations

Moscow has confirmed a new round of trilateral negotiations with Ukraine and the US for 17 and 18 February. "Another round of negotiations will be held in a trilateral Russian-American-Ukrainian format in Geneva," said Peskov, announcing that the Russian delegation will be led by Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky. Peskov previously confirmed the agreement for this round, noting that "movement forward continues." The first round took place on 23-24 January in Abu Dhabi, led by Igor Kostyukov, head of the GRU. The second round followed on 4-5 February, also in Abu Dhabi.

On 11 February, Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the next round of talks would take place on 17 and 18 February, mentioning the territorial issue would be discussed. Zelensky added that the conflict could end in a few months "if negotiations proceed in good faith," referencing earlier comments that the US wants hostilities to end by June 2026. Reuters reported that the US and Ukraine discussed the possibility of signing a peace agreement in March 2026.

Russia maintains low expectations

In Russia, expectations remain tempered. Duma deputy Alexey Chepa believes significant breakthroughs are unlikely in this round. "Huge progress will not happen, but the movement forward continues. To ensure a stable peace, every detail must be considered," Chepa said.

Ambiguous rhetoric

Many analysts point to an article in The Atlantic regarding Volodymyr Zelensky's stance on a peace deal. The article highlights a contrast between Zelensky's public rhetoric and the findings of journalist Simon Shuster, who is well-acquainted with the president’s inner circle.

First, the military situation: Zelensky claims "Ukraine is not losing." However, Shuster notes that the "math of exhaustion" is not in Ukraine's favor. A NATO general is quoted saying, "If anyone expects Russia to just surrender and go home, they will be waiting a long time." Kyiv's plan to increase Russian casualties to 50,000 per month suggests that Russia is currently capable of replenishing its forces, aided by a population and GDP significantly larger than Ukraine's.

Second, the negotiations: Zelensky is banking on Donald Trump's interest in a deal, but the report warns that as US elections approach, Trump "may view negotiations as a political loss" and withdraw, blaming the failure of diplomacy on the parties' intransigence.

Third, security guarantees: Shuster reminds that Zelensky previously claimed the deal with the US was "100% ready." However, in interviews, he admits outstanding issues remain, such as whether the US will intercept missiles over Ukraine if a ceasefire is violated. "We need this in writing," Zelensky says.

Fourth, territory: While Zelensky publicly states that "no one should expect us to give up territory," the article mentions that two of his advisors are considering the "most difficult retreat"—losing control over parts of the Donetsk region. Furthermore, the new head of the negotiating team, Kyrylo Budanov, is reportedly more inclined toward territorial compromise than the previous team. The publication suggests a divide in leadership; while Zelensky claims readiness to continue the war if the deal is "bad," his associates believe Ukraine needs peace now to avoid years of further conflict.

New York Times: Trump pressures Ukraine for Donbass concessions

The administration of US President Donald Trump is increasing pressure on Ukraine, attempting to push Kyiv toward territorial concessions in the Donbass to resolve the conflict, according to the New York Times. Sources state the US aims to end the war by early summer, pressuring Ukraine to accept compromises in the east. Simultaneously, Ukraine insists on Western security guarantees before making concessions, though the format remains unclear. Additionally, MP Yaroslav Yurchyshyn reported that during Abu Dhabi talks in February, the US asked Ukraine to hold new presidential elections on 15 May, threatening to withdraw from the process if compromise is not reached.

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